Friendly International

Colombia - Peru

10/06/2026, 11:45 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Colombia
1.5
Total xG
2.5
Peru
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:0

9%

2:1

9%

1:2

6%

3:0

5%
What influences the xG?
COLPER

Colombia

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.41
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.38
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Attack strength (1.26x league average)
+0.07
Luis DĂ­az not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
James RodrĂ­guez not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)

Peru

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.23
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.08
16% of goal output missing (only 90% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Colombia: first goal in 8 of 10 games (80%)

  • 2
    Peru: dropped a lead in 4 of 5 games (10 points lost)

  • 3
    Colombia: 44% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (7 of 16)

  • 4
    Colombia with Luis SuĂĄrez starting: 2 goals/game, without him: 1.4 (11/15 games, last 30)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

29%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Squad disruption: Without James RodrĂ­guez and Luis DĂ­az, Colombia lacks crucial attacking quality, with only 68% of their regular goal threat available
  • Tactical dominance: Colombia recently averaged 56% possession in their matches, but managed only an average of 3.0 shots on target per game
  • Defensive vulnerability: Peru concedes an average of 2.5 goals per away match, which could present opportunities for Colombia's struggling offense
Risk Factors
  • Tight schedule: Both teams have a very short recovery time with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Offense form trend: Colombia's goal scoring recently stalled at 0.7 goals per match compared to their season average of 1.8
Overview

Colombia faces Peru in an international friendly match

The match takes place on October 6, 2026, 11:45 PM at Hard Rock Stadium

Mathematical analysis calculates a home win probability of 48%

Colombia enters the game as the favorite despite recent struggles

Form

Colombia form: DWDDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Peru form: WLLDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Colombia lost their last match 0-1 against Paraguay

Peru suffered a 0-2 defeat against Canada in their last outing

Statistics

Colombia has scored an average of 1.56 goals per game this season

Peru has conceded a high average of 2.14 goals per match

Peru's defense has failed to record a single clean sheet in 7 matches

Colombia's home defense is stable, conceding just 0.7 goals per home game on average

Head-to-Head

There have been 5 head-to-head matches between these teams

The record is perfectly even with 1 win for each side and 3 draws

The last encounter on June 6, 2025, ended in a 0-0 draw

Key Players

Jhon Arias has contributed 3 goals from attack this season

Luis SuĂĄrez is in great shape with 4 goals in his last 5 matches

Jairo VĂ©lez is Peru's main threat with 5 goals from midfield

Goalkeepers

Kevin Mier starts for Colombia, posting a recent rating of 7.02

Pedro Gallese features in goal for Peru, still searching for his first clean sheet of the season

Influences

The match is played on grass at Hard Rock Stadium, which averages 4.2 goals per game

Moderate rain is expected with temperatures of 30.55°C (feeling like 36.69°C)

High humidity of 71% could test the physical endurance of the players

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