Friendly International

Korea Republic - Uruguay

09/28/2026, 11:00 AM

1 : 4
Expected Goals
Korea Republic
1.1
Total xG
2.5
Uruguay
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

0:2

8%

2:1

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
KRURU

Korea Republic

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.10

Uruguay

Attack strength (1.44x league average)
+0.45
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.21
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1 league avg)
-0.11
44% of goal output missing (only 55% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Korea Republic: 7 of 16 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Korea Republic: 81% of all goals in the second half (13 of 16, last 12 games)

  • 3
    Uruguay: opponent scores first in 6 of 8 games (75%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

26%

Draw

29%

Away Win

44%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

56%

Away or Draw

74%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical forecast: The model calculates a 44% win probability for Uruguay and 1.46 expected goals
  • Tactical metrics: Korea Republic dominated possession with 63.6% recently, while Uruguay averaged 4.0 shots on target
  • Form gap: Korea Republic won three of their last five matches, while Uruguay is winless in five games
Risk Factors
  • Limited squad strength: Uruguay has only 56% of their usual starting XI strength available
  • Stagnant offense: Korea Republic's goal production has stalled at 1.2 recently compared to their season average of 1.8
  • Away defensive vulnerability: Uruguay concedes an average of 1.6 goals per away match
Overview

Korea Republic hosts Uruguay at the Seoul World Cup Stadium

International friendly on September 28, 2026, at 11:00 AM UTC

An even matchup without league pressure where both teams test their lineups

The visitors from Uruguay enter the match as the mathematical favorites

Form

Korea Republic shows mixed form recently with the sequence WWLLW

They lost two of their last five matches but won their most recent game

Uruguay is waiting for a win with a form sequence of DDDLL

The visitors suffered two consecutive defeats in their last two matches

Statistics

Korea Republic scores an average of 2.5 goals per game this season

The hosts are defensively stable, conceding only 0.5 goals per match

Uruguay averages 1.22 goals scored and 0.67 goals conceded per game

Away from home, Uruguay concedes an average of 1.6 goals per match

Key Players

Heung-min Son is Korea's most dangerous attacker with 3 goals this season

Kang-in Lee shows a rising form trend in midfield

Maxi Araújo convinces for Uruguay in defense and attack with a rising trend

Goalkeepers

Seung-gyu Kim played in 3 season matches for Korea Republic

He contributed to his team's 9 clean sheets this season

Cristopher Fiermarín started in goal in four of the last five matches for Uruguay

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Seoul World Cup Stadium

Korea Republic scores an average of 2.67 goals per home game

Matches at this stadium have averaged 2.2 goals per game over 5 matches

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