Match report →
Korea Republic – Ecuador3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Korea Republic
1.12
Total xG
2.48
Ecuador
1.35
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Korea Republic | Ecuador |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.42x league average) | +0.33 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1 league avg) | −0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| 16% of goal output missing (only 68% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Ecuador currently has only 50% of its regular goal production available in the squad
- Both teams dominated possession in recent matches, averaging over 58% possession
- The mathematical model favors the visitors, calculating a 40% probability for an away win
Risks
- Korea Republic must operate with reduced starting strength, as only 68% of their regular goal threat is available
- Limited database on head-to-head records due to a lack of previous meetings
All probabilities
Result
Korea Republic29%
Draw30%
Ecuador40%
Double chance
Korea Republic or draw60%
Ecuador or draw71%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
0:0
10%
0:1
10%
1:2
9%
1:0
8%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Korea Republic: 7 of 15 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Korea Republic: 47% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (7 of 15)
- Korea Republic: 80% of all goals in the second half (12 of 15, last 12 games)
Lineups
Korea Republic 4-4-2 · Ecuador 4-2-3-1
Korea Republic
- 1 S. Kim
- 22 Seol Young-Woo
- 2 H. Lee
- 4 M. Kim
- 26 Cho Hyun-Taek
- 29 S. Jung
- 16 J. Park
- 10 J. Lee
- 17 M. Song
- 18 H. Oh
- 7 H. Son
Ecuador
- 1 H. Galíndez
- 17 A. Preciado Quiñónez
- 25 J. Porozo Vernaza
- 6 W. Pacho Tenorio
- 7 P. Estupiñán Tenorio
- 15 P. Vite Uca
- 21 A. Franco Palma
- 11 K. Arroyo Alvarado
- 10 J. Zamora
- 20 N. Angulo Ramírez
- 9 J. Caicedo Medina
Substitutes
- 27 M. Kim
- 11 H. Hwang
- 8 S. Paik
- 13 T. Lee
- 3 T. Kim
- 5 T. Kim
- 14 D. Lee
- 20 S. Oh
- 15 J. Choi
- 24 B. Kim
- 12 B. Song
- 21 H. Cho
- 28 W. Cho
- 25 G. Kim
- 30 T. Park
- 18 D. Castillo
- 23 J. Mercado Cuero
- 16 J. Sarmiento
- 5 J. Alcívar Macías
- 12 W. Ramírez Preciado
- 22 G. Valle Bustamante
- 14 A. Minda García
- 2 F. Torres Caicedo
- 19 J. Hurtado Cheme
- 8 A. Valencia
- 13 J. Angulo Caiced
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →