Friendly International

Korea Republic - Ecuador

09/24/2026, 11:00 AM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
Korea Republic
1.1
Total xG
2.5
Ecuador
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

0:0

10%

0:1

10%

1:2

9%

1:0

8%
What influences the xG?
KRECU

Korea Republic

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.01
16% of goal output missing (only 68% available)

Ecuador

Attack strength (1.42x league average)
+0.33
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.15
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1 league avg)
-0.11
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Korea Republic: 7 of 15 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Korea Republic: 47% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (7 of 15)

  • 3
    Korea Republic: 80% of all goals in the second half (12 of 15, last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

29%

Draw

30%

Away Win

40%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

60%

Away or Draw

71%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Ecuador currently has only 50% of its regular goal production available in the squad
  • Both teams dominated possession in recent matches, averaging over 58% possession
  • The mathematical model favors the visitors, calculating a 40% probability for an away win
Risk Factors
  • Korea Republic must operate with reduced starting strength, as only 68% of their regular goal threat is available
  • Limited database on head-to-head records due to a lack of previous meetings
Overview

Korea Republic face Ecuador at the Suwon World Cup Stadium

International Friendly on September 24, 2026, 12:00 PM

A balanced matchup between two competitive national teams

The mathematical model indicates a slight advantage for the away team

Form

Korea Republic form: WWWLL

Two consecutive losses against South Africa and Mexico in recent games

Previously secured three straight victories

Ecuador form: WLDWL

Ecuador suffered a 0-2 defeat against Mexico in their last match

Two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches

Statistics

Korea Republic averaged 2.5 goals scored and 0.5 goals conceded per game this season

At home they averaged 2.67 goals scored per match

Ecuador scored only 14 goals in 18 games with an average of 0.78

Ecuador conceded an average of 0.75 goals in their 4 away matches

Head-to-Head

No previous head-to-head matches found in the database

This friendly international represents the first recorded meeting between the two sides

Key Players

Heung-min Son has 2 goals this season with a rating of 7.22

Hyeon-gyu Oh scored 1 goal in his last 5 matches with 0.80 goals per 90 minutes

Han-beom Lee scored 1 goal in his last 3 appearances with a 7.18 rating

Jordy Caicedo scored 4 goals in his last 5 games for Ecuador with a 7.05 rating

John Yeboah registered 1 goal and 2 assists this season

Keny Arroyo recently scored 2 goals and provided 1 assist in 5 matches

Goalkeepers

Seung-gyu Kim played 5 matches with a season rating of 6.4

HernĂĄn GalĂ­ndez played 5 games with a season rating of 7.04

Korea Republic recorded 9 clean sheets

Ecuador kept 13 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Suwon World Cup Stadium

Korea Republic show strong home stats with 2.67 goals scored per game

Ecuador remain defensively solid away from home with only 0.75 goals conceded per match

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