Match report →
Japan – Uruguay3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Japan
1.18
Total xG
2.59
Uruguay
1.41
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Japan | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.46x league average) | +0.40 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.22 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1 league avg) | −0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| 100% of goal output missing (only 55% available) | ||
| 100% of goal output missing (only 0% available) |
Key factors
- Lineup changes: Only 56% of Japan's usual starting XI strength is active for this match
- Tactical setup: Japan averaged 4.0 shots on target per match in recent games
- Struggling attack: Uruguay's goal production has stalled at 1.0 recently, dropping below their season average of 1.5
Risks
- Limited data quality regarding head-to-head history for this matchup
- Defensive vulnerability on the road with Uruguay conceding 1.6 goals per away match on average
- Absence of midfielder F. Valverde Dipetta weakens the Uruguayan squad
All probabilities
Result
Japan30%
Draw30%
Uruguay40%
Double chance
Japan or draw60%
Uruguay or draw70%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
0:2
7%
2:1
7%
2:0
5%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Japan: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Japan: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)
- Uruguay: opponent scores first in 5 of 7 games (71%)
Lineups
Japan 3-4-2-1 · Uruguay 4-4-2
Japan
- 23 T. Hayakawa
- 3 A. Seko
- 4 K. Itakura
- 21 H. Ito
- 19 K. Matsuki
- 24 K. Sano
- 28 K. Sano
- 13 K. Nakamura
- 10 R. Doan
- 8 Y. Suzuki
- 11 D. Maeda
Uruguay
- 1 S. Mele Castanero
- 8 N. Nández Acosta
- 4 R. Araújo da Silva
- 16 M. Olivera Miramontes
- 25 J. Sanabria Magole
- 18 P. Rodríguez Bravo
- 14 L. Torreira Di Pascua
- 6 R. Bentancur Colmán
- 20 M. Araújo Vilches
- 9 D. Núñez Ribeiro
- 21 F. Viñas Barboza
Substitutes
- 20 T. Kubo
- 17 A. Tanaka
- 15 D. Kamada
- 25 J. Suzuki
- 18 A. Ueda
- 5 T. Watanabe
- 14 J. Ito
- 26 K. Shiogai
- 6 S. Tanaka
- 30 K. Kumasaka
- 12 L. Kokubo
- 7 Y. Soma
- 29 S. Saito
- 31 K. Tanimura
- 2 S. Nakano
- 19 ?. Mouriño González
- 2 J. Giménez de Vargas
- 26 M. Satriano
- 11 F. Pellistri Rebollo
- 17 R. Zalazar Martínez
- 24 J. Rodríguez Camejo
- 7 R. Aguirre Soto
- 23 C. Fiermarin Forlán
- 22 J. Piquerez Moreira
- 3 S. Cáceres Ramos
- 13 G. Varela Olivera
- 15 E. Martínez Toranza
- 10 G. De Arrascaeta Benedetti
- 12 T. Cardozo Brugman
- 5 F. Bernal Cruz
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