Friendly International

Japan - Uruguay

09/24/2026, 10:05 AM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Japan
1.2
Total xG
2.6
Uruguay
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

0:2

7%

2:1

7%

2:0

5%
What influences the xG?
JAPURU

Japan

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.06
100% of goal output missing (only 55% available)

Uruguay

Attack strength (1.46x league average)
+0.40
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.22
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1 league avg)
-0.07
100% of goal output missing (only 0% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Japan: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 2
    Japan: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)

  • 3
    Uruguay: opponent scores first in 5 of 7 games (71%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

30%

Draw

30%

Away Win

40%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

60%

Away or Draw

70%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Lineup changes: Only 56% of Japan's usual starting XI strength is active for this match
  • Tactical setup: Japan averaged 4.0 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Struggling attack: Uruguay's goal production has stalled at 1.0 recently, dropping below their season average of 1.5
Risk Factors
  • Limited data quality regarding head-to-head history for this matchup
  • Defensive vulnerability on the road with Uruguay conceding 1.6 goals per away match on average
  • Absence of midfielder F. Valverde Dipetta weakens the Uruguayan squad
Overview

Japan hosts Uruguay in an international friendly at the National Olympic Stadium

An exciting clash between two major footballing nations

The mathematical model favors Uruguay slightly with a 40% win probability

Form

Japan shows a form of WDWDL with two wins in their last five matches

Uruguay enters with a DDDDL form and has not won any of their last five games

Both teams suffered a defeat in their most recent fixture

Statistics

Japan averages an impressive 3.38 goals scored per home match this season

The hosts conceded only 0.12 goals per game on home soil

Uruguay scores 1.2 goals and concedes 1.6 goals on average in away matches

Key Players

Yuito Suzuki stands out for Japan with 4 goals in his last 5 appearances

Kaishu Sano recently contributed 1 goal and 2 assists

Federico Viñas is Uruguay's top threat with 4 goals in 5 games

Goalkeepers

T. Hayakawa is expected to start in goal for Japan

Santiago Mele is selected as the goalkeeper for Uruguay

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at the National Olympic Stadium

The venue averages 2.75 goals per match historically

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