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Super League

Winterthur - Servette

03/03/2026, 07:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Winterthur
1.1
Total xG
3.3
Servette
2.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

10%

1:2

10%

0:2

9%

1:3

7%

0:3

6%
What influences the xG?
WINSER

Winterthur

Defensive weakness (2.8 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
+1.05
Attack weakness (0.53x league average)
-0.95
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.15
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.15
Alexandre Jankewitz not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
Tibault Citherlet not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)

Servette

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.12
Timothé Cognat not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
David Douline not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 82% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.79
+0.79
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

18%

Draw

23%

Away Win

59%

Goals

Over 1.5

85%

Under 1.5

15%

Over 2.5

64%

Under 2.5

36%

Over 3.5

42%

Under 3.5

58%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

41%

Away or Draw

82%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

61%

No

39%

Key Factors
  • Winterthur's defensive weakness: Conceding an average of 2.85 goals per game and without a single clean sheet, Winterthur's defense is extremely vulnerable
  • Difference in form: While Winterthur has suffered five consecutive losses, Servette has at least earned points in their last four matches (four draws)
  • Servette's offensive quality: Servette scores significantly more goals (1.63 per game) than their opponent and faces the league's weakest defense, increasing their win probability to 59% according to the model
Risk Factors
  • Key absences for Servette: An important striker, F. Aye (8 goals), is missing, and the starting lineup is at only 83% of its usual strength according to the analysis
  • Poor offensive form of both teams: According to the data, both teams have a negative trend in goal scoring; Servette's average recently dropped from 1.63 to 1.25 goals
  • Short recovery time: Both teams have had only three days of rest since their last match, which could lead to fatigue
Overview

Winterthur (12th place, 14 points) hosts Servette (10th place, 29 points) at Stadion Schützenwiese

Super League match on March 3, 2026, 8:30 PM

The visitors are the favorites in this bottom-of-the-table clash

Form

Winterthur is in catastrophic form with five consecutive losses

Form: LLLLL (0 wins, 0 draws, 5 losses)

Servette is also winless in five matches but has recently managed four consecutive draws

Form: LDDDD (0 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss)

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

With an average of 2.85 goals conceded per game, Winterthur has the weakest defense in the league and has not kept a single clean sheet this season

Servette is more potent offensively, scoring an average of 1.63 goals per game, while Winterthur manages 1.11

In 20 of Servette's 27 league matches, both teams have scored

Head-to-Head

In the last five head-to-head encounters, Servette has the upper hand with 3 wins, compared to one win for Winterthur and one draw

The goal difference also favors Servette at 11:6

However, Winterthur won the most recent meeting 4:2

Key Players

For Winterthur, hopes rest on Andrin Hunziker (8 season goals, 2 assists) and Théo Golliard (3 goals, 4 assists)

The key players for Servette are Miroslav Stevanovic (8 goals, 5 assists) and the in-form Jérémy Guillemenot (6 goals, 2 assists)

Goalkeepers

Winterthur's goalkeeper Stefanos Kapino has not yet kept a clean sheet this season

Joël Mall in goal for Servette has already kept a clean sheet 4 times with his team this season

Influences

The Stadion Schützenwiese is a venue for high-scoring games, with an average of 3.8 goals in the last five home matches

Winterthur's defensive weakness at home is evident with 2.0 goals conceded per game

Servette scores an average of 1.6 goals per away game

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