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AGF – Benfica1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
AGF
1.24
Total xG
2.01
Benfica
0.77
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | AGF | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | −2.23 | |
| Attack strength (2.33x league average) | +1.97 | |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | +0.73 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.8 goals/match) | +0.48 | |
| Rising form (3.8 vs 2.2 season average) | +0.48 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.27 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (1.6 vs 2.1 season average) | −0.14 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1 league avg) | −0.13 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- According to the dataset AGF currently has only 0% of its seasonal goal production available
- Benfica averaged a strong 9.6 shots on target per match in recent games
- Benfica is currently scoring more frequently with an average of 3.8 goals per game compared to their season average of 2.21
Risks
- AGF showed defensive weakness recently conceding an average of 2.6 goals per match
- The mathematical model calculates a probability of only 33% for over 2.5 goals
- Limited data availability regarding player form in the provided dataset
All probabilities
Result
AGF46%
Draw33%
Benfica22%
Goals
Over 1.561%
Under 1.539%
Over 2.533%
Under 2.567%
Over 3.514%
Under 3.586%
Double chance
AGF or draw79%
Benfica or draw54%
No draw67%
Both teams score
Yes40%
No60%
Most likely scores
0:0
15%
1:0
15%
1:1
14%
2:0
10%
0:1
9%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Benfica: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Benfica: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Benfica: goal in the first 15 minutes in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- AGF: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Benfica: 9 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
AGF 3-5-2 · Benfica 4-1-3-2
AGF
- 21 M. Christiansen
- 26 J. Andersen
- 33 L. Callo
- 44 M. Camara
- 29 R. Carstensen
- 16 J. Jønsson
- 10 K. Malt Arnstad
- 23 M. Anderson
- 11 G. Links
- 31 T. Kristensen
- 13 J. Serra
Benfica
- 24 S. Jumpe Soares
- 6 A. Hartmann Bah
- 44 T. Araújo
- 2 C. Lenglet
- 26 S. Dahl
- 5 E. Barrenechea
- 18 L. Barreiro Martins
- 10 H. Sudakov
- 27 R. Fernandes Ferreira da Silva
- 14 V. Pavlidis
- 25 G. Prestianni Gross
Substitutes
- 25 C. Rosler
- 1 J. Hansen
- 8 S. Jørgensen
- 19 E. Kahl
- 27 S. Tchamche
- 39 F. Emmery Søgaard
- 7 M. Solbakken
- 45 C. Storch
- 14 T. Henriksen
- 4 M. Knudsen
- 28 J. Bogere
- 42 M. van der Raad
- 13 J. Kamiński
- 1 A. Trubin
- 62 J. Formoso Neto
- 20 R. Rios
- 11 D. Lukebakio
- 16 M. Silva
- 21 A. Schjelderup
- 22 J. Durán Palacio
- 3 A. Circati
- 72 A. Fernandes Reis Cabral
- 77 G. Carvalho Moreira
- 33 Gabriel Queiroz
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