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Europa League

AGF - Benfica

08/27/2026, 06:00 PM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
AGF
1.2
Total xG
2.0
Benfica
0.8
Most Likely Scores

0:0

15%

1:0

15%

1:1

14%

2:0

10%

0:1

9%
What influences the xG?
AGFBEN

AGF

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.73
Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.27
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (1.6 vs 2.1 season average)
-0.14
Full strength squad available

Benfica

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-2.23
Attack strength (2.33x league average)
+1.97
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.8 goals/match)
+0.48
Rising form (3.8 vs 2.2 season average)
+0.48
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1 league avg)
-0.13
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Benfica: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Benfica: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)

  • 3
    Benfica: goal in the first 15 minutes in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 4
    AGF: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 5
    Benfica: 9 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

33%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

61%

Under 1.5

39%

Over 2.5

33%

Under 2.5

67%

Over 3.5

14%

Under 3.5

86%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

40%

No

60%

Key Factors
  • According to the dataset AGF currently has only 0% of its seasonal goal production available
  • Benfica averaged a strong 9.6 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Benfica is currently scoring more frequently with an average of 3.8 goals per game compared to their season average of 2.21
Risk Factors
  • AGF showed defensive weakness recently conceding an average of 2.6 goals per match
  • The mathematical model calculates a probability of only 33% for over 2.5 goals
  • Limited data availability regarding player form in the provided dataset
Overview

AGF host Benfica at Cepheus Park Randers

Europa League match on August 27, 2026, 6:00 PM

The home team fights to stay in the competition after the first leg defeat

Form

AGF shows inconsistent form with LWWLL

The home team has 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 5 matches

Benfica arrives undefeated with a form of WDDWW

The Portuguese side has recorded 3 wins and 2 draws recently

Statistics

AGF scores an average of 1.94 goals per home game

The Danish defense conceded an average of 0.88 goals in front of their home crowd

Benfica is highly dangerous away, averaging 2.20 goals per game

The visitors' defense concedes an average of only 0.80 goals on the road

Head-to-Head

There has been only one head-to-head match between the two teams so far

The last meeting on August 20, 2026 ended in a 3-1 win for Benfica

Benfica therefore leads the historical head-to-head record with one win

Key Players

Tobias Bech stands out with 2 goals at the venue and an average rating of 7.44

Rasmus Carstensen stabilizes the defense with a rating of 6.93

Gift Links contributes with an average rating of 6.84

ClƩment Lenglet has played 1 match at this venue

Georgiy Sudakov also recorded 1 match at this venue

Vangelis Pavlidis has made 1 appearance at this venue

Goalkeepers

Mads Hedenstad is in goal for AGF

Samuel Soares guards the net for Benfica

AGF has recorded 9 clean sheets in total this season

Benfica has already achieved 14 clean sheets this campaign

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at Cepheus Park Randers

Stadium statistics show an average of 3.2 goals per match

Both teams scored in 60% of the matches played at this venue

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