šŸ‡ŖšŸ‡ŗ

Europa League

Benfica - AGF

08/20/2026, 07:00 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Benfica
1.2
Total xG
2.0
AGF
0.8
Most Likely Scores

0:0

16%

1:1

15%

1:0

14%

0:1

10%

2:0

9%
What influences the xG?
BENAGF

Benfica

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.91
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.64
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (4.2 goals/match)
+0.60
Rising form (4.2 vs 2.2 season average)
+0.60
Attack strength (1.92x league average)
+0.52
Full strength squad available

AGF

Attack strength (1.49x league average)
-0.56
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.29
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.22
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.10
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Benfica: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Benfica: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    AGF: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Benfica: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    AGF: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

34%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

61%

Under 1.5

39%

Over 2.5

32%

Under 2.5

68%

Over 3.5

14%

Under 3.5

86%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

66%

Both Score

Yes

40%

No

60%

Key Factors
  • Offensive power: Benfica currently score an average of 4.2 goals per game, significantly higher than their season average of 2.2
  • Tactical dominance: Benfica recently dominated possession with an average of 65.2% and 9.0 shots on target per game
  • Home strength: Benfica concede only 0.68 goals per home game on average
Risk Factors
  • Short recovery: Benfica have only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Away defensive issues: AGF recently conceded 2.2 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.32
  • Limited data availability on head-to-head matches between the teams
Overview

Benfica host AGF in the Europa League

Match on August 20, 2026, 8:00 PM at the EstƔdio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Benfica enter the match as favorites

Form

Benfica is unbeaten in 5 games with a form of WWDDW

Most recently they won 7-0 against Casa Pia

AGF has a form of WLWWL and lost their last match 0-4 against Sabah

Statistics

Benfica averaged 2.18 goals scored and 0.74 goals conceded this season

At home Benfica concede only 0.68 goals per game on average

AGF average 1.94 goals scored and 1.12 goals conceded away from home

Key Players

For the home side Vangelis Pavlidis with 23 goals at the venue, Georgiy Sudakov with 3 goals and 2 assists, and Rafa Silva with 4 goals and 1 assist are key

For the visitors Tobias Bech, Kristian Arnstad, and James Bogere are in focus

Goalkeepers

Samuel Soares played 21 games at the venue with an average rating of 6.78

Mads Hedenstad played one game at the venue

Influences

EstƔdio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica saw an average of 5.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 80% of matches and 100% ended over 2.5 goals

The match is played on grass

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.