Friendly International

Russia - Iran

09/29/2026, 04:00 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Russia
1.3
Total xG
3.0
Iran
1.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

9%

0:2

7%

2:1

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
RUSIRA

Russia

3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.09
Lechi Sadulaev on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)

Iran

Attack strength (1.67x league average)
+0.77
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.12
Mohammad Mohebi on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Russia: first goal in 8 of 10 games (80%)

  • 2
    Russia: 70% of all goals in the first half (16 of 23, last 12 games)

  • 3
    Iran: opponent scores first in 6 of 8 games (75%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

26%

Draw

26%

Away Win

47%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

59%

Under 2.5

41%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

53%

Away or Draw

74%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

61%

No

39%

Key Factors
  • Tactical dominance: Russia averaged 61.2% possession and 6.2 shots on target recently
  • Model forecast: The mathematical analysis sees an away win probability of 47%
  • Offensive drop: Iran's attack currently averages 1.8 goals, down from their season average of 2.3
Risk Factors
  • Defensive struggles: Iran concedes 1.5 goals per away game on average
  • Short recovery: Iran has only 5 days of rest since their last match
  • Squad impact: Russia operates at 78% of starting strength without Lechi Sadulaev
Overview

Russia hosts Iran

Friendly International on September 29, 2026, 6:00 PM at Ak Bars Arena

A balanced matchup between two competitive national teams

Form

Russia's overall form is WDLWW

This includes 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Iran's overall form is WDDDL with 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Russia averaged 1.8 goals scored per game this season

The hosts conceded an average of only 0.4 goals per match

Iran scored 2.19 goals per game overall this season

However, Iran conceded an average of 1.5 goals in away matches

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match between these teams

Russia won this single direct encounter

The last match ended in a 2-1 victory for Russia on October 10, 2025

Key Players

K. Tyukavin recorded 1 goal and 1 assist in the season with an 8.4 rating

Aleksandr Golovin scored 1 goal in 2 appearances

Sardar Azmoun registered 2 goals and 2 assists in his last 4 matches

Goalkeepers

Matvey Safonov starts in goal for Russia with a 5.89 season rating

Seyed Hossein Hosseini starts for Iran with a 6.5 rating

Russia kept 3 clean sheets this season

Influences

The game will be played on grass at the Ak Bars Arena

Russia averaged 1.8 goals scored in 5 home games

Iran averaged 2.33 goals scored in 6 away matches

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