Friendly International

Colombia - Paraguay

10/03/2026, 12:00 AM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Colombia
1.3
Total xG
2.3
Paraguay
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

11%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
COLPAR

Colombia

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.46
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.36
Attack strength (1.28x league average)
-0.21
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Luis DĂ­az not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
James RodrĂ­guez not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)

Paraguay

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.47
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.17
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Colombia: first goal in 9 of 10 games (90%)

  • 2
    Colombia: 44% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (8 of 18)

  • 3
    Paraguay with Diego GĂłmez starting: 1 goals/game, without him: 0.5 (21/6 games, last 28)

  • 4
    Colombia with Luis SuĂĄrez starting: 2.2 goals/game, without him: 1.4 (10/16 games, last 30)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

32%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Tactical contrast: Colombia averaged 57% possession in recent matches, compared to Paraguay's average of 33%
  • Defensive stability: Paraguay concede a seasonal average of only 0.56 goals per game
  • Model advantage: The mathematical analysis calculates a 41% win probability for Colombia
Risk Factors
  • Weakened attack: Luis DĂ­az and James RodrĂ­guez are missing from Colombia's lineup
  • Stalling goal scoring: Both teams registered a lower goal production of only 1.0 goals recently
Overview

Colombia face Paraguay

International friendly on October 3, 2026

Played at Sports Illustrated Stadium

Form

Colombia's form is WDWDD

Two consecutive draws in their recent matches

Paraguay enter with form WDDLW

Most recent match ended in a victory

Statistics

Colombia score an average of 1.56 goals per game this season

The home side's defense concedes an average of 1.00 goals

Paraguay average 0.78 goals scored per match

The visitors concede an average of only 0.56 goals per game

Head-to-Head

Balanced record over 5 head-to-head matches

Each team has 1 win alongside 3 draws

The last meeting ended in a 2-2 draw on March 26, 2025

Key Players

Luis SuĂĄrez with 2 season goals and 5 goals in his last 5 matches

Jhon Arias impresses with a seasonal average rating of 7.31

Richard RĂ­os shows rising form with a 7.12 rating in recent games

Miguel AlmirĂłn holds a seasonal average rating of 6.89

Gustavo GĂłmez recorded 1 assist and a rating of 7.02 recently

Andrés Cubas improved his recent average rating to 6.88

Goalkeepers

Aldair Quintana starts in goal for Colombia

The home side has recorded 7 clean sheets in total

Orlando Gill guards the goal for Paraguay

Paraguay's defense has achieved 10 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match is played on grass at the Sports Illustrated Stadium

Venue history shows an average of 2.4 goals per game

Colombia score an average of 1.6 goals in home games

Paraguay concede an average of 1.17 goals when playing away

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