Super League
Luzern - Young Boys
03/04/2026, 07:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.9
3.7
1.8
2:1
8%1:2
7%2:2
7%3:1
5%3:2
5%What influences the xG?
Luzern
Young Boys
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
41%
Draw
24%
Away Win
35%
Goals
Over 1.5
90%
Under 1.5
10%
Over 2.5
72%
Under 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
51%
Under 3.5
49%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
65%
Away or Draw
59%
No Draw
76%
Both Score
Yes
73%
No
27%
Key Factors
- Significant weakening of the visitors: Young Boys are missing key players Christian Fassnacht and Alan Virginius, leaving only 53% of their usual attacking power available
- Defensive vulnerability away from home: Young Boys concede an average of 3.27 goals on their travels, which plays into the hands of a strong Luzern home side
- High goal potential on both sides: Both teams have strong attacks and vulnerable defenses, suggesting a high-scoring game. A 73% probability for 'Both teams to score' supports this assumption
Risk Factors
- Potential fatigue for the visitors: Young Boys have had only three days of rest since their last match, which could lead to a fitness disadvantage
- Historical record: Despite their current poor away form, Young Boys have the head-to-head record on their side, winning 3 of the last 5 encounters against Luzern
Overview
Luzern (7th place, 33 points) hosts Young Boys (6th place, 39 points) in the Super League
The match will take place on March 4, 2026, at 8:30 PM at Sportplatz Chrützmatt
A clash between two mid-table neighbors, with the home team slightly favored by mathematical analysis at 41%
Form
Luzern form: DWWWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
The home team has 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss from their last five matches
Young Boys form: DLWLW
The visitors have been more inconsistent with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
Statistics
Both teams are strong offensively, with Luzern scoring an average of 1.96 goals per game and Young Boys 2.04
Defensively, both are vulnerable: Luzern concedes 1.89 goals per game, and Young Boys 1.93
Particularly striking is Young Boys' massive away weakness, conceding an average of 3.27 goals per game on the road
For Luzern, 21 out of 27 league games have seen both teams score
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 direct encounters, Young Boys have had the upper hand with 3 wins
Luzern won only once, and one match ended in a draw
The goal difference from these matches is 8:7 in favor of Luzern
The last meeting was won by Young Boys with a score of 2-0
Key Players
For the home team, Matteo Di Giusto (9 goals, 10 assists), Oscar Kabwit (6 goals, 4 assists), and Lucas Manuel Silva Ferreira (7 goals, 2 assists) are the standouts
For the visitors, Alvyn Sanches (5 goals, 5 assists), Edimilson Fernandes (1 goal, 5 assists), and Joël Monteiro (4 goals, 2 assists) are the key players
Not nominated is Lars Villiger (4 season goals, 1 assist)
Goalkeepers
In goal for Luzern is Pascal Loretz; his team has kept 4 clean sheets this season
Marvin Keller is the goalkeeper for Young Boys, who have kept 6 clean sheets this season
Influences
The Sportplatz Chrützmatt has recently been a guarantee for high-scoring games
In the last five home matches, there was an average of 5.4 goals per game
In all five of these matches, both teams scored and there were over 2.5 goals each time