Champions League
Atalanta - Athletic Club
01/21/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
0.6
1.4
0.8
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
39%
Draw
30%
Away Win
30%
Goals
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
9%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
70%
Away or Draw
61%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
42%
No
58%
Key Factors
- Atalanta's strong home record (1.27 goals per game) meets a weak away Athletic Club (1.89 goals conceded per game)
- Slight form advantage for Atalanta with 3 wins from the last 5 games compared to Athletic Club's 2 wins
- Atalanta's defense is statistically more stable with 0.95 goals conceded per game than Athletic Club's (1.4)
Risk Factors
- Lack of direct duels: With no historical encounters, the outcome of the match is harder to assess
- Numerous injuries for both teams, especially for Athletic Club, could significantly impact the expected performance
- The low goal forecast suggests a tight game that could be decided by a single moment
Overview
Atalanta (8th place, 13 points) hosts Athletic Club (32nd place, 5 points) at the Gewiss Stadium
This is a Champions League match on January 21, 2026, 9:00 PM
Based on the league standings, Atalanta enters the match as the favorite
Form
Atalanta's form from the last five matches: LWWWD (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss)
Athletic Club's form from the last five matches: WLDWL (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)
Atalanta shows a slightly more stable form curve than Athletic Club
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Atalanta scores an average of 1.24 goals per match and concedes 0.95
Athletic Club scores an average of 0.95 goals and concedes 1.4 goals per match
At home, Atalanta is stronger with a scoring average of 1.27 goals while conceding only 0.82
Athletic Club is defensively vulnerable away, conceding an average of 1.89 goals per match
Head-to-Head
There are no direct encounters between these two teams recorded in the database
Key Players
Charles De Ketelaere has been directly involved in 4 goals this season (2 goals, 2 assists)
Nikola KrstoviÄ is showing rising form with 3 goals in his last 4 appearances
Gorka Guruzeta is a key attacker for Athletic Club with 3 goals this season
Nico Williams has scored 1 goal in the last 5 games and is on an upward trend
Goalkeepers
Marco Carnesecchi for Atalanta has a season rating of 7.47
Unai SimĂłn in goal for Athletic Club has an average rating of 6.89
Atalanta has kept 7 clean sheets this season, while Athletic Club has managed 5
Influences
An average of 2.0 goals are scored per match at the Gewiss Stadium
Atalanta has a strong home record on natural grass with 7 wins in 10 matches (16:7 goals)
Athletic Club has a negative away record on natural grass with 4 losses in 10 matches (11:14 goals)