Match report →
India – Panama1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
India
1.23
Total xG
3.15
Panama
1.92
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | India | Panama |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.36x league average) | +1.01 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.23 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.11 | |
| Jiovany Ramos on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 58% of goal output missing (only 33% available) |
Key factors
- Only 33% of goal threat available without Jiovany Ramos
- India averaged only 1.8 shots on target in recent matches
- Panama is favored with a calculated win probability of 52%
Risks
- Limited data availability for India's xG values and missing head-to-head history
- India averages only 0.5 home goals per game this season
- Panama's goal production is currently stalling at 1.0 goals compared to their season average of 1.3
All probabilities
Result
India23%
Draw25%
Panama52%
Double chance
India or draw48%
Panama or draw77%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.561%
Under 2.539%
Over 3.539%
Under 3.561%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
1:2
10%
0:2
8%
1:3
6%
2:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Panama: 10 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Panama: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)
Lineups
India 4-4-2 · Panama 4-1-4-1
India
- 1 G. Singh Sandhu
- 2 T. Singh
- 5 B. Varghese
- 4 A. Ali
- 6 A. Mishra
- 14 V. Singh
- 8 L. Lalengmawia
- 15 R. Shabong
- 22 A. Kuruniyan
- 10 R. Williams
- 9 M. Singh
Panama
- 1 M. De León Reyes
- 2 C. Blackman
- 24 E. Anderson Gomez
- 25 J. Jones
- 27 Y. Modelo
- 5 V. Griffith Mullins
- 9 T. Rodríguez Mena
- 20 G. Herbert
- 26 D. Murillo
- 10 R. Mosquera
- 21 M. Jiménez Murillo
Substitutes
- 20 E. Lalrindika
- 11 R. Ali
- 19 F. Choudhary
- 16 M. Nickson
- 23 A. Gomes
- 3 P. Singh
- 12 M. Sanan K
- 18 S. Samad
- 24 M. Singh
- 7 A. Thapa
- 21 J. Gupta
- 13 P. Gill
- 17 H. Ralte
- 25 I. Yadwad
- 26 S. Kumar
- 23 M. Murillo Bermudez
- 4 M. Krug
- 12 E. Roberts Chifundo
- 15 J. Gutiérrez Cornejo
- 22 O. Mosquera
- 19 O. Valencia Arauz
- 14 C. Harvey Cesneros
- 11 A. Londoño
- 13 J. Ramos Díaz
- 17 J. Fajardo Nelson
- 7 J. Rodríguez Francis
- 8 A. Carrasquilla Alcázar
- 6 C. Martinez
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