Match report →
Como – Manchester United4 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Como
1.54
Total xG
3.20
Manchester United
1.67
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Como | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −1.01 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.84 | +0.84 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.36 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.36 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.35 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.21 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.18 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.05 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Attack: Como scores 1.71 goals per game in the league this season, Manchester United concedes 1.5 per game away
- Tactics: Como averages 20.4 shots per game in recent matches, Manchester United records 15.8 shots per game
- xG: Como records 1.82 xG per game in the league this season, Manchester United averages 1.71 xG per game
Risks
- Form: Manchester United is winless in their last 5 matches with 3 draws and 2 losses
- Personnel: Manchester United without L. Yoro, who started in 3 of the last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Como34%
Draw26%
Manchester United40%
Double chance
Como or draw60%
Manchester United or draw66%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.562%
Under 2.538%
Over 3.540%
Under 3.560%
Both teams score
Yes65%
No35%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.54 : 1.67, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
2:2
7%
0:2
6%
4:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Manchester United: 6 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Como: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
Lineups
Como 4-2-3-1 · Manchester United 4-2-3-1
Como
- 1 J. Butez
- 27 Y. Couto
- 4 J. Naveros
- 2 M. Kempf
- 3 ?. Valle Gómez
- 5 M. Perrone
- 6 L. Milla Manzanares
- 7 L. Da Cunha
- 10 N. Paz Martínez
- 20 M. Baturina
- 9 A. Douvikas
Manchester United
- 1 S. Lammens
- 2 J. Dalot Teixeira
- 4 M. de Ligt
- 5 H. Maguire
- 3 N. Mazraoui
- 7 M. Mount
- 17 A. Nascimento dos Santos
- 19 B. Mbeumo
- 18 Y. Tielemans
- 10 M. Carneiro Da Cunha
- 8 B. Fernandes
Substitutes
- 97 R. Lynch Sanchez
- 21 S. Ricci
- 28 I. Smolčić
- 8 M. Caqueret
- 13 A. Dossena
- 30 M. Liberali
- 16 K. da Silva
- 12 L. Ginelli
- 20 C. Noom Quomah
- 12 K. Darlow
- 16 A. Traoré
- 11 J. Zirkzee
- 22 T. Heaton
- 26 A. Heaven
- 41 H. Amass
- 38 J. Fletcher
- 31 S. Lacey
- 39 T. Fletcher
- 27 T. Thompson
- 57 D. Armer
- 56 J. Kamason
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