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Atlético de Madrid – FC Bayern München0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Atlético de Madrid
1.69
Total xG
3.92
FC Bayern München
2.23
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlético de Madrid | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (2.02x league average) | +1.51 | |
| High-scoring league (3.4 goals/match) | +0.87 | +0.87 |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | −0.67 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.47 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 2, 12 places gap) | −0.23 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 14, 12 places gap) | +0.13 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.12 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Serge Gnabry not in squad (2 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Aleksandar Pavlovic on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (2.2 vs 3.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Attack: FC Bayern München average 3.38 goals per game in the Bundesliga this season
- Shots: FC Bayern München averaged 8.8 shots on target per game in recent matches, Atlético de Madrid 4.6 per game
- Head-to-head: FC Bayern München won 3 of the 5 head-to-head meetings (1 win for Atlético de Madrid)
Risks
- Form: Atlético de Madrid are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw) conceding 0.2 goals per game
- Home/Away: FC Bayern München score 1.75 goals per game away in the league, Atlético de Madrid 2.2 per game at home
All probabilities
Result
Atlético de Madrid28%
Draw22%
FC Bayern München49%
Double chance
Atlético de Madrid or draw51%
FC Bayern München or draw72%
No draw78%
Goals
Over 1.591%
Under 1.59%
Over 2.575%
Under 2.525%
Over 3.555%
Under 3.545%
Both teams score
Yes74%
No26%
xG score
1:2
From xG 1.69 : 2.23, rounded up only from .98% probability
Other likely scores
2:2
7%
2:1
6%
1:3
6%
2:3
5%
0:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Atlético de Madrid: 8 wins in 8 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)
- FC Bayern München: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Atlético de Madrid: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Michael Olise: 5 of 7 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- FC Bayern München: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- FC Bayern München: 5 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Atlético de Madrid 4-4-2 · FC Bayern München 4-2-3-1
Atlético de Madrid
- 13 J. Oblak
- 18 M. Pubill Pagès
- 24 R. Le Normand
- 17 D. Hancko
- 22 A. Grimaldo García
- 20 G. Simeone
- 8 Pablo Barrios Rivas
- 14 M. Llorente Moreno
- 10 A. Rodríguez
- 9 A. Sørloth
- 19 J. Álvarez
FC Bayern München
- 1 M. Neuer
- 27 K. Laimer
- 2 D. Upamecano
- 4 J. Tah
- 44 J. Stanisic
- 6 J. Kimmich
- 8 T. Bischof
- 17 M. Olise
- 42 L. Karl
- 19 A. Davies
- 9 H. Kane
Substitutes
- 4 R. Mendoza Martinez Moya
- 6 J. Resurrección Merodio
- 1 J. Musso
- 7 K. Lee
- 11 A. Lookman
- 15 J. David
- 3 O. Vaargas
- 30 D. Martinez Moreno
- 16 A. Ortiz Sanchez
- 27 J. Domínguez
- 46 J. Castillo Frutos
- 11 N. Brown
- 23 S. Boey
- 3 M. Kim
- 47 D. Daiber
- 26 S. Ulreich
- 21 H. Ito
- 40 J. Urbig
- 45 A. Pavlović
- 46 T. Binder
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