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FC Bayern München – Arsenal2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
FC Bayern München
2.01
Total xG
3.47
Arsenal
1.46
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC Bayern München | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.87 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.84 | +0.84 |
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.63 | |
| Attack strength (1.42x league average) | −0.49 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.32 | |
| Attack strength (1.37x league average) | −0.20 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.18 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (4 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Declining form (1.6 vs 2 season average) | −0.13 | |
| Michael Olise not in squad (5 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Luis Díaz on the bench (7 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Joshua Kimmich not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Jonathan Tah on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 35% of goal output missing (only 72% available) | ||
| Myles Lewis-Skelly on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.6 vs 2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: FC Bayern München score 6 goals per game at home in the league, Arsenal concede 0.75 goals per game away
- Shots: FC Bayern München average 11.2 shots on target per game in the last 5 games, Arsenal 4.4 per game
Risks
- Personnel: M. Olise and J. Musiala are missing, they scored 6 of FC Bayern München's 21 league goals this season (29%)
- Form: Arsenal have won 6 of 7 games in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
FC Bayern München49%
Draw24%
Arsenal27%
Double chance
FC Bayern München or draw73%
Arsenal or draw51%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.567%
Under 2.533%
Over 3.546%
Under 3.554%
Both teams score
Yes68%
No32%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.01 : 1.46, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
10%
2:2
7%
1:2
7%
2:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Arsenal: 10 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (91% win rate)
- Arsenal: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- FC Bayern München: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Arsenal: 32% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (6 of 19)
- FC Bayern München: 70% of all goals in the second half (28 of 40, last 12 games)
Lineups
FC Bayern München 4-2-3-1 · Arsenal 4-3-3
FC Bayern München
- 1 M. Neuer
- 27 K. Laimer
- 2 D. Upamecano
- 3 M. Kim
- 44 J. Stanisic
- 8 T. Bischof
- 45 A. Pavlović
- 7 S. Gnabry
- 34 I. Saibari Ben El Basra
- 19 A. Davies
- 9 H. Kane
Arsenal
- 1 D. Raya Martin
- 12 J. Timber
- 15 E. Konsa Ngoyo
- 6 G. dos Santos Magalhães
- 33 R. Calafiori
- 8 M. Ødegaard
- 39 B. Guimarães Rodriguez Moura
- 41 D. Rice
- 7 B. Saka
- 29 K. Havertz
- 20 C. Madueke
Substitutes
- 11 N. Brown
- 23 S. Boey
- 42 L. Karl
- 26 S. Ulreich
- 14 L. Díaz Marulanda
- 21 H. Ito
- 40 J. Urbig
- 4 J. Tah
- 39 B. Sapoko Ndiaye
- 30 I. Meslier
- 13 K. Arrizabalaga Revuelta
- 56 M. Dowman
- 36 M. Zubimendi Ibáñez
- 3 C. Mosquera
- 10 E. Eze
- 14 V. Gyökeres
- 4 B. White
- 23 M. Merino Zazón
- 49 M. Lewis-Skelly
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