Match report →
Liverpool – Villarreal4 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Liverpool
2.86
Total xG
3.73
Villarreal
0.87
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Liverpool | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.77 | +0.77 |
| Attack strength (1.22x league average) | −0.65 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.46 | |
| Attack strength (1.63x league average) | +0.35 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.23 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 35, 32 places gap) | +0.20 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 35 vs 3, 32 places gap) | −0.15 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.15 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Dominik Szoboszlai not in squad (5 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Florian Wirtz on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Ilias Akhomach on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (3.4 vs 1.9 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Head-to-head: Liverpool won 3 of the 4 meetings with Villarreal
- Form: Liverpool won 3 of its last 5 matches, Villarreal won 2 of 9 matches in the league this season
Risks
- Home: Liverpool scored 0.67 goals per game at home in the league this season and conceded 1.67 goals per game
- Schedule: Liverpool with 3 days since its last match
All probabilities
Result
Liverpool77%
Draw15%
Villarreal8%
Double chance
Liverpool or draw92%
Villarreal or draw23%
No draw85%
Goals
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.572%
Under 2.528%
Over 3.551%
Under 3.549%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
xG score
2:0
From xG 2.86 : 0.87, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
3:0
9%
2:1
9%
3:1
8%
4:0
7%
4:1
6%
4:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Villarreal: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Villarreal: 35% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (8 of 23)
- Liverpool: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
- Liverpool: 33% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (7 of 21)
Lineups
Liverpool 4-2-3-1 · Villarreal 4-2-3-1
Liverpool
- 1 A. Becker
- 33 R. Araújo da Silva
- 5 J. Jacquet
- 4 V. van Dijk
- 21 K. Tsimikas
- 10 A. Mac Allister
- 42 T. Nyoni
- 73 R. Ngumoha
- 38 R. Gravenberch
- 18 C. Gakpo
- 67 L. Koumas
Villarreal
- 25 P. Gulácsi
- 15 ?. Mouriño González
- 6 P. Navarro Badenes
- 12 R. Palma Veiga
- 23 S. Cardona Bermúdez
- 14 S. Comesaña Veiga
- 18 P. Gueye
- 17 T. Buchanan
- 24 N. Saliba
- 10 A. Moleiro González
- 9 G. Mikautadze
Substitutes
- 29 B. Barcola
- 9 A. Isak
- 28 F. Woodman
- 7 F. Wirtz
- 25 G. Mamardashvili
- 6 Milos Kerkez
- 2 J. Gomez
- 53 J. McConnell
- 76 J. Danns
- 44 L. Chambers
- 11 Ilias Chakkour
- 22 A. Pérez Gutiérrez
- 2 L. Costa
- 21 T. Oluwaseyi
- 1 L. Reis Júnior
- 8 J. Foyth
- 7 G. Moreno Balaguero
- 20 C. Romero Serrano
- 28 J. Gaitán Diaz
- 27 N. El Jmili Ben Hamou
- 16 Carlos Macià
- 5 A. Diatta
- 3 A. Freeman
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