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Champions League

Napoli - Arsenal

09/09/2026, 07:00 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Napoli
1.2
Total xG
2.7
Arsenal
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

2:1

7%

0:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
NAPARS

Napoli

Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.41
Standings disadvantage (pos 30 vs 1, 29 places gap)
-0.22
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.07
Scott McTominay not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists)
53% of goal output missing (only 85% available)

Arsenal

Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.51
Attack strength (1.2x league average)
+0.18
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 30, 29 places gap)
+0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.08
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
-0.01
Kai Havertz on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
Myles Lewis-Skelly on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.5 vs 2.1 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.47
+0.47
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Arsenal: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)

  • 2
    Arsenal: 8 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 3
    Arsenal: 72% of all goals in the first half (13 of 18, last 12 games)

  • 4
    Arsenal: 33% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 18)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

30%

Draw

29%

Away Win

41%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

59%

Away or Draw

70%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • Form gap: Arsenal is unbeaten in their last 5 matches while Napoli suffered consecutive defeats
  • Defensive solidity: Arsenal conceded a mere 0.71 goals per game on average this season
  • Tactical attacking output: Arsenal averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Short rest: Arsenal faces a fitness disadvantage with only 3 days of recovery since their last game
  • Away defensive regression: Arsenal concedes 1.0 goals per away match compared to only 0.5 at home
  • Key absentee: Napoli is missing the clinical Scott McTominay, leaving them with only 85% of their usual starting strength
Overview

Napoli hosts Arsenal at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

Champions League fixture on September 9, 2026, 9:00 PM

Mathematical models favor Arsenal with a 41% win probability

Expected goals are calculated at 1.22 for Napoli and 1.46 for the visitors

Form

Napoli enters the match with a WWWLL form after suffering two consecutive defeats

Arsenal shows consistent stability with a WDWWW form and three wins in a row

The recent momentum lies with the English side

Statistics

Arsenal averages 1.87 goals scored and only 0.71 goals conceded per match this season

Napoli records 1.53 goals scored and 0.95 goals conceded on average

At home Napoli scored an average of 1.5 goals

Head-to-Head

Arsenal has won three of the four direct encounters while Napoli won one

The last match-up ended in a 1-0 away victory for Arsenal

Key Players

Kevin De Bruyne leads Napoli with an impressive season rating of 7.21

Bukayo Saka stands out with 3 goals and 2 assists alongside a 7.09 rating

Declan Rice commands the central midfield boasting a season rating of 7.35

Goalkeepers

Alex Meret played one match this season with a rating of 6.31

David Raya has started 14 games in goal keeping a strong rating of 7.15

Arsenal kept 19 clean sheets over the course of the season

Influences

The match takes place on natural grass at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

The venue averages 3.0 goals per game with a 60% rate of Over 2.5 goals

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