Match report →
Napoli – Arsenal0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Napoli
1.22
Total xG
2.68
Arsenal
1.46
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Napoli | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.51 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.47 | +0.47 |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.41 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 30 vs 1, 29 places gap) | −0.22 | |
| Attack strength (1.2x league average) | +0.18 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 30, 29 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | −0.01 | |
| Scott McTominay not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 53% of goal output missing (only 85% available) | ||
| Kai Havertz on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Myles Lewis-Skelly on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.5 vs 2.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form gap: Arsenal is unbeaten in their last 5 matches while Napoli suffered consecutive defeats
- Defensive solidity: Arsenal conceded a mere 0.71 goals per game on average this season
- Tactical attacking output: Arsenal averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches
Risks
- Short rest: Arsenal faces a fitness disadvantage with only 3 days of recovery since their last game
- Away defensive regression: Arsenal concedes 1.0 goals per away match compared to only 0.5 at home
- Key absentee: Napoli is missing the clinical Scott McTominay, leaving them with only 85% of their usual starting strength
All probabilities
Result
Napoli30%
Draw29%
Arsenal41%
Double chance
Napoli or draw59%
Arsenal or draw70%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
2:1
7%
0:2
7%
2:2
5%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Arsenal: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Arsenal: 8 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- Arsenal: 72% of all goals in the first half (13 of 18, last 12 games)
- Arsenal: 33% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 18)
Lineups
Napoli 4-3-3 · Arsenal 4-2-3-1
Napoli
- 1 A. Meret
- 22 G. Di Lorenzo
- 13 A. Rrahmani
- 16 R. Marín Zamora
- 17 M. Olivera Miramontes
- 11 K. De Bruyne
- 6 B. Gilmour
- 68 S. Lobotka
- 21 M. Politano
- 19 R. Højlund
- 27 A. de Almeida Santos
Arsenal
- 1 D. Raya Martin
- 4 B. White
- 15 E. Konsa Ngoyo
- 6 G. dos Santos Magalhães
- 5 P. Hincapié Reyna
- 41 D. Rice
- 23 M. Merino Zazón
- 7 B. Saka
- 8 M. Ødegaard
- 10 E. Eze
- 14 V. Gyökeres
Substitutes
- 5 B. Badiashile Mukinayi
- 32 V. Milinković Savić
- 14 N. Contini Baranovsky
- 31 S. Beukema
- 37 L. Spinazzola
- 20 L. Lucca
- 26 A. Vergara
- 7 D. Neres Campos
- 2 C. Favasuli
- 30 I. Meslier
- 13 K. Arrizabalaga Revuelta
- 56 M. Dowman
- 36 M. Zubimendi Ibáñez
- 20 C. Madueke
- 33 R. Calafiori
- 29 K. Havertz
- 49 M. Lewis-Skelly
- 39 B. Guimarães Rodriguez Moura
- 17 C. Tzolis
- 89 M. Salmon
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