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Porto – Manchester City0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Porto
1.34
Total xG
2.74
Manchester City
1.40
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Porto | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.43 | +0.43 |
| Attack strength (1.54x league average) | +0.42 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.22 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | −0.18 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.17 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Nico O'Reilly not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.5 vs 2.2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Porto are in excellent form with five consecutive victories in recent games
- Manchester City dominated possession in recent matches, averaging 65% ball possession
- Porto's defense is exceptionally robust at home, conceding only 0.35 goals per game
Risks
- Manchester City face potential fatigue with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Limited data available regarding the current player form of Porto
- Manchester City's goal production has slowed down to 1.8 recently, compared to their season average of 2.2
All probabilities
Result
Porto34%
Draw29%
Manchester City37%
Double chance
Porto or draw63%
Manchester City or draw66%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Porto: 9 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (90% win rate)
- Manchester City: 10 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against AFC Bournemouth: 2 goals (84', 90+1')
- Manchester City: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Manchester City: 3 comebacks in 4 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)
- Porto: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Porto 4-3-3 · Manchester City 4-2-3-1
Porto
- 99 D. Meireles Costa
- 20 A. Costa
- 18 N. Pérez
- 4 J. Kiwior
- 52 M. Moreira Moutinho Fernandes
- 13 P. Rosario
- 22 A. Varela
- 10 G. Veiga Novas
- 7 W. Gomes Carvalho Santos
- 19 A. Valente Silva
- 11 E. Aquino Cossa
Manchester City
- 1 G. Donnarumma
- 27 M. Nunes
- 6 M. Guehi
- 3 R. Santos Gato Alves Dias
- 24 J. Gvardiol
- 32 A. Bouaddi
- 17 E. Fernández
- 47 P. Foden
- 10 M. Cherki
- 42 A. Semenyo
- 9 E. Haaland
Substitutes
- 42 S. Fofana
- 16 I. Hwang
- 24 J. Santos da Costa
- 17 B. Sainz Eguskiza
- 14 C. Morais Ramos
- 74 F. Moura
- 92 J. Moreira Teixeira
- 29 S. Giménez
- 33 J. de Souza Menezes
- 58 T. Silva
- 64 L. Domingos Vieira Barata Gomes
- 57 D. Cunha
- 22 V. de Oliveira Nunes dos Reis
- 28 G. Rulli
- 7 I. Ndiaye
- 5 E. Anderson
- 13 M. Bettinelli
- 21 R. Aït Nouri
- 8 M. Kovačić
- 82 R. Lewis
- 45 A. Khusanov
- 56 R. McAidoo
- 37 A. Andrade Elias
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