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Champions League

Porto - Manchester City

09/08/2026, 07:00 PM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
Porto
1.3
Total xG
2.7
Manchester City
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

0:2

6%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
PORMC

Porto

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.22
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.09
Full strength squad available

Manchester City

Attack strength (1.54x league average)
+0.42
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.18
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
-0.17
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.11
Nico O'Reilly not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.5 vs 2.2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.43
+0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Porto: 9 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (90% win rate)

  • 2
    Manchester City: 10 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against AFC Bournemouth: 2 goals (84', 90+1')

  • 3
    Manchester City: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 4
    Manchester City: 3 comebacks in 4 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)

  • 5
    Porto: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

34%

Draw

29%

Away Win

37%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

63%

Away or Draw

66%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Porto are in excellent form with five consecutive victories in recent games
  • Manchester City dominated possession in recent matches, averaging 65% ball possession
  • Porto's defense is exceptionally robust at home, conceding only 0.35 goals per game
Risk Factors
  • Manchester City face potential fatigue with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Limited data available regarding the current player form of Porto
  • Manchester City's goal production has slowed down to 1.8 recently, compared to their season average of 2.2
Overview

Porto host Manchester City at the EstĆ”dio Do DragĆ£o

Champions League match on September 8, 2026, 8:00 PM

A highly anticipated clash between two European top teams

Manchester City currently sit in 2nd place while Porto are in 16th

Form

Porto are in stellar shape with five consecutive wins

The home team's recent form shows a perfect WWWWW

Manchester City travel with a recent record of DLWWW

Most recently, the English side secured a narrow 1:0 home win against Coventry City

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Porto average 1.94 goals scored and only 0.53 goals conceded per game this season

At home, Porto's defense is incredibly strong, conceding just 0.35 goals per match

Manchester City score 2.03 goals on average but concede 1.31 per away game

The model predicts expected goals of 1.34 for Porto and 1.40 for Manchester City

Head-to-Head

In their four previous meetings, Manchester City have dominated with three wins

Porto have never beaten City, with only one draw recorded between the teams

The last direct encounter in December 2020 ended in a goalless 0:0 draw

Key Players

For Manchester City, Erling Haaland is in rising form with 8 goals this season

Rayan Cherki shines in midfield with 3 goals and a season rating of 7.49

William Gomes has been a key figure for Porto with 9 goals scored at the EstĆ”dio Do DragĆ£o

Gabri Veiga has contributed 6 goals in home matches

Goalkeepers

Diogo Costa guards Porto's goal and has kept 12 clean sheets in home matches this season

Gianluigi Donnarumma starts for Manchester City, holding 7 away clean sheets this season

Influences

Home advantage is key for Porto, who conceded only 6 goals in 17 home matches

The match will be played on natural grass at the EstĆ”dio Do DragĆ£o

The model calculates a 57% probability for both teams to score

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