Match report →
FC Barcelona – Feyenoord5 : 1
Why the model thinks so
FC Barcelona
1.54
Total xG
2.78
Feyenoord
1.23
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC Barcelona | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.71 | |
| Attack strength (2.06x league average) | +0.52 | |
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | −0.47 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.47 | +0.47 |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.35 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.31 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.6 goals/match) | +0.30 | |
| Rising form (3.6 vs 2.6 season average) | +0.30 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 2 season average) | +0.17 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Fermín López on the bench (6 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 18% of goal output missing (only 85% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Critical squad depletion: Feyenoord has only 6% of its seasonal goal-scoring threat available in this lineup
- Tactical dominance: Barcelona averaged 68% possession and 8.0 shots on target in recent matches
- Strong home trend: The model estimates a 71% probability for a home win or draw
Risks
- Short recovery time: Barcelona enters the match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
- Missing playmaker: Without Fermín López, Barcelona's lineup strength drops to 86%
- Away defense vulnerability: Feyenoord concedes an average of 1.4 goals per away match
All probabilities
Result
FC Barcelona43%
Draw28%
Feyenoord29%
Double chance
FC Barcelona or draw71%
Feyenoord or draw57%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
2:0
7%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
5:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Barcelona: 10 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (91% win rate)
- FC Barcelona: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- FC Barcelona with Raphinha starting: 3.3 goals/game, without him: 1.6 (17/10 games, last 29)
Lineups
FC Barcelona 4-3-3 · Feyenoord 4-2-3-1
FC Barcelona
- 1 J. Pons
- 23 J. Koundé
- 5 P. Cubarsí Paredes
- 15 A. Christensen
- 2 J. Cavaco Cancelo
- 20 D. Olmo Carvajal
- 16 Rodri
- 8 P. López
- 10 L. Yamal Nasraoui Ebana
- 11 Raphinha
- 14 K. Adeyemi
Feyenoord
- 1 T. Ernst
- 26 G. Read
- 6 J. St. Juste
- 4 T. Watanabe
- 35 M. Marmol Medina
- 8 G. Zechiël
- 34 C. Vanhoutte
- 23 A. Hadj Moussa
- 10 L. Valente
- 16 J. López Carballo
- 19 I. Ferri Julià
Substitutes
- 25 D. Livaković
- 13 W. Szczęsny
- 18 G. Martín Langreo
- 3 A. Balde Martínez
- 22 M. Bernal Casas
- 7 F. López Marín
- 6 Pablo Gaviria
- 9 G. de Jesus
- 17 A. Gordon
- 12 X. Espart Font
- 29 H. Abdel Karim
- 4 B. Pérez
- 39 L. Bossin
- 27 G. Diarra
- 11 G. Albuquerque Borges
- 49 S. van Persie
- 24 T. Kraaijeveld
- 28 O. Targhalline
- 14 S. Steijn
- 20 M. Deijl
- 22 T. van den Elshout
- 57 J. Schaken
- 32 T. Wessels
- 33 F. Kastenmeier
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