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Champions League

FC Barcelona - Feyenoord

09/09/2026, 04:45 PM

5 : 1
Expected Goals
FC Barcelona
1.5
Total xG
2.8
Feyenoord
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

2:0

7%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
FBFEY

FC Barcelona

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.71
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.35
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.6 goals/match)
+0.30
Rising form (3.6 vs 2.6 season average)
+0.30
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
FermĂ­n LĂłpez on the bench (6 goals, 4 assists)
18% of goal output missing (only 85% available)

Feyenoord

Attack strength (2.06x league average)
+0.52
Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
-0.47
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.31
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.17
Rising form (2.6 vs 2 season average)
+0.17
Weak away record (1.3 vs 2 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.47
+0.47
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Barcelona: 10 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (91% win rate)

  • 2
    FC Barcelona: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)

  • 3
    FC Barcelona with Raphinha starting: 3.3 goals/game, without him: 1.6 (17/10 games, last 29)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

43%

Draw

28%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

57%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Critical squad depletion: Feyenoord has only 6% of its seasonal goal-scoring threat available in this lineup
  • Tactical dominance: Barcelona averaged 68% possession and 8.0 shots on target in recent matches
  • Strong home trend: The model estimates a 71% probability for a home win or draw
Risk Factors
  • Short recovery time: Barcelona enters the match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
  • Missing playmaker: Without FermĂ­n LĂłpez, Barcelona's lineup strength drops to 86%
  • Away defense vulnerability: Feyenoord concedes an average of 1.4 goals per away match
Overview

FC Barcelona host Feyenoord at the Camp Nou

Champions League match on September 9, 2026, 6:45 PM

Both teams start without points in the new league phase

Form

FC Barcelona won four of their last five matches with a form of LWWWW

Feyenoord is unbeaten in five games with a form of WDWDW

Barca is currently averaging 3.6 goals per game

Statistics

Barcelona scored 95 goals and conceded 36 goals this season

Feyenoord scored 70 goals and conceded 44 goals this season

At Camp Nou Barca conceded an average of just 0.43 goals per game

Head-to-Head

There are no historical head-to-head matches in the provided dataset

This is the first documented meeting in recent history

Key Players

Lamine Yamal shines with 6 goals, 4 assists, and a 7.87 rating

Raphinha contributed 3 goals and 2 assists with a 7.60 rating

Pedri stands out with an average rating of 7.16

Tsuyoshi Watanabe holds a rating of 7.51

Anis Hadj Moussa scored 1 goal with a 7.23 rating

Luciano Valente holds a rating of 6.49

Goalkeepers

Joan GarcĂ­a starts in goal for the hosts, holding a rating of 6.60

His team kept 10 home clean sheets this season

Tjark Ernst guards the goal for Feyenoord

The visitors secured 6 away clean sheets this season

Influences

The home advantage at Camp Nou is statistically strong with 57 home goals

Matches at this venue average 3.2 goals per game

The match is played on grass

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