Match report →
Villarreal – Paris Saint Germain0 : 6
Why the model thinks so
Villarreal
1.21
Total xG
4.14
Paris Saint Germain
2.93
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Villarreal | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.66x league average) | +1.13 | |
| High-scoring league (3.4 goals/match) | +0.87 | +0.87 |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | −0.45 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.6 goals/match) | +0.34 | |
| Rising form (3.6 vs 2.5 season average) | +0.34 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.30 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.23 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 35 vs 11, 24 places gap) | −0.21 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 11 vs 35, 24 places gap) | +0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| 23% of goal output missing (only 88% available) | ||
| K. Kvaratskhelia not in squad (10 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| O. Dembélé not in squad (8 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 29% of goal output missing (only 31% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.7 vs 2.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form: Paris Saint Germain with 5 wins in their last 5 matches, Villarreal with 2 wins
- Shots: Paris Saint Germain averaged 10.2 shots on target per match in their last 5 matches, Villarreal 4.6 per match
- League: Paris Saint Germain won 6 of 9 league matches this season, Villarreal won 3 of 11 matches
Risks
- Defense: Paris Saint Germain allowed 1.92 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but conceded 1.2 goals per match
All probabilities
Result
Villarreal12%
Draw16%
Paris Saint Germain72%
Double chance
Villarreal or draw28%
Paris Saint Germain or draw88%
No draw84%
Goals
Over 1.593%
Under 1.57%
Over 2.578%
Under 2.522%
Over 3.559%
Under 3.541%
Both teams score
Yes67%
No33%
xG score
1:3
From xG 1.21 : 2.93, rounded up only from .98% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
8%
0:3
7%
1:4
6%
2:2
5%
0:6
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Paris Saint Germain: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Paris Saint Germain: 3 comebacks in 4 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)
- Villarreal: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (6 of 19 total)
- Villarreal: 6 of 19 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Paris Saint Germain: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Paris Saint Germain: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Villarreal 4-2-3-1 · Paris Saint Germain 4-3-3
Villarreal
- 25 P. Gulácsi
- 3 A. Freeman
- 15 ?. Mouriño González
- 12 R. Palma Veiga
- 20 C. Romero Serrano
- 18 P. Gueye
- 14 S. Comesaña Veiga
- 19 N. Pépé
- 16 Carlos Macià
- 17 T. Buchanan
- 22 A. Pérez Gutiérrez
Paris Saint Germain
- 39 M. Safonov
- 2 A. Hakimi Mouh
- 6 I. Zabarnyi
- 51 W. Pacho Tenorio
- 21 L. Hernández Pi
- 87 J. Gonçalves Neves
- 17 V. Machado Ferreira
- 8 F. Ruiz Peña
- 11 M. Akliouche
- 24 S. Mayulu
- 14 D. Doue
Substitutes
- 2 L. Costa
- 9 G. Mikautadze
- 21 T. Oluwaseyi
- 1 L. Reis Júnior
- 23 S. Cardona Bermúdez
- 6 P. Navarro Badenes
- 10 A. Moleiro González
- 28 J. Gaitán Diaz
- 27 N. El Jmili Ben Hamou
- 13 R. Gómez Peris
- 27 P. Fernández Sarmiento
- 9 F. Torres García
- 47 Q. Ndjantou Mbitcha
- 30 L. Chevalier
- 4 L. Lopes Beraldo
- 33 W. Zaire Emery
- 12 L. Digne
- 22 M. Godts
- 42 D. Boly
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