Match report →
Arsenal – LOSC Lille3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Arsenal
1.84
Total xG
2.72
LOSC Lille
0.88
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Arsenal | LOSC Lille |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −1.22 | |
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.59 | +0.59 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.19 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 2 season average) | −0.19 | |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | +0.18 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Bukayo Saka on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Kai Havertz on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Defensive strength at home: Arsenal concede an average of just 0.50 goals per home match
- Squad impact: LOSC Lille currently have 0% of their goal production available in the lineup analysis
- Tactical dominance: Arsenal averaged 6.0 shots on target per match in recent games
Risks
- Short recovery time: Both teams play with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Lineup rotations: Arsenal start without Bukayo Saka and Kai Havertz in the starting XI
- Limited data available regarding head-to-head history
All probabilities
Result
Arsenal59%
Draw25%
LOSC Lille16%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Double chance
Arsenal or draw84%
LOSC Lille or draw41%
No draw75%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:0
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Arsenal: 10 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (91% win rate)
- LOSC Lille: first goal in 7 of 7 games (100%)
- Arsenal: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
Lineups
Arsenal 4-2-3-1 · LOSC Lille 4-3-3
Arsenal
- 1 D. Raya Martin
- 12 J. Timber
- 15 E. Konsa Ngoyo
- 6 G. dos Santos Magalhães
- 49 M. Lewis-Skelly
- 41 D. Rice
- 39 B. Guimarães Rodriguez Moura
- 20 C. Madueke
- 23 M. Merino Zazón
- 10 E. Eze
- 14 V. Gyökeres
LOSC Lille
- 1 B. Özer
- 38 M. Goffi
- 3 N. Ngoy
- 4 A. Souza Ribeiro
- 15 R. Perraud
- 17 N. Mukau
- 6 N. Bentaleb
- 21 B. André
- 7 D. Bakwa
- 18 A. Ueda
- 10 H. Haraldsson
Substitutes
- 30 I. Meslier
- 13 K. Arrizabalaga Revuelta
- 56 M. Dowman
- 3 C. Mosquera
- 8 M. Ødegaard
- 4 B. White
- 7 B. Saka
- 33 R. Calafiori
- 29 K. Havertz
- 89 M. Salmon
- 53 C. O’Neill
- 2 L. Srdanovic
- 23 N. Kouassi
- 9 O. Giroud
- 24 C. Verdonk
- 11 O. Sahraoui
- 14 M. Kjaergaard
- 26 I. Cossier
- 35 S. Diaoune
- 50 T. Sajous
- 19 B. Onal
- 28 G. Perrin
- 12 O. Gill
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