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Atlético de Madrid – Manchester United2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Atlético de Madrid
1.63
Total xG
2.51
Manchester United
0.88
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlético de Madrid | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | −0.84 | |
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.59 | +0.59 |
| Attack strength (1.23x league average) | +0.55 | |
| Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean | +0.22 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.19 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Ademola Lookman on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Strong home form with 4 consecutive wins compared to Manchester United's 3-match winless streak
- Atlético de Madrid averaged 7.2 shots on target in their last 5 matches
- The prediction model calculates a 54% probability of a home victory
Risks
- Critical situation in the visitors' squad impact: 0% available goal production
- Short recovery window: Both teams played their last match just 3 days ago
- Manchester United concede an average of 1.53 goals per away match
All probabilities
Result
Atlético de Madrid54%
Draw28%
Manchester United19%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Double chance
Atlético de Madrid or draw81%
Manchester United or draw46%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No52%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:0
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
3:1
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Atlético de Madrid: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Atlético de Madrid: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Manchester United: 6 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Atlético de Madrid: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Real Sociedad: 3 goals (84', 90', 90+5')
- Manchester United with Bryan Mbeumo starting: 2 goals/game, without him: 1.2 (22/6 games, last 30)
Lineups
Atlético de Madrid 4-4-2 · Manchester United 4-2-3-1
Atlético de Madrid
- 13 J. Oblak
- 14 M. Llorente Moreno
- 21 C. Romero
- 17 D. Hancko
- 22 A. Grimaldo García
- 20 G. Simeone
- 8 Pablo Barrios Rivas
- 5 J. de Souza Cardoso
- 10 A. Rodríguez
- 7 K. Lee
- 19 J. Álvarez
Manchester United
- 1 S. Lammens
- 2 J. Dalot Teixeira
- 15 L. Yoro
- 6 L. Martínez
- 26 A. Heaven
- 17 A. Nascimento dos Santos
- 20 C. Noom Quomah
- 8 B. Fernandes
- 18 Y. Tielemans
- 9 M. Rashford
- 19 B. Mbeumo
Substitutes
- 4 R. Mendoza Martinez Moya
- 9 A. Sørloth
- 18 M. Pubill Pagès
- 1 J. Musso
- 24 R. Le Normand
- 11 A. Lookman
- 23 M. Hjulmand
- 15 J. David
- 30 D. Martinez Moreno
- 16 A. Ortiz Sanchez
- 27 J. Domínguez
- 46 J. Castillo Frutos
- 12 K. Darlow
- 7 M. Mount
- 10 M. Carneiro Da Cunha
- 5 H. Maguire
- 16 A. Traoré
- 11 J. Zirkzee
- 4 M. de Ligt
- 41 H. Amass
- 31 S. Lacey
- 39 T. Fletcher
- 45 D. Mee
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