Match report →
Real Madrid – Inter2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Real Madrid
1.65
Total xG
3.26
Inter
1.62
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Real Madrid | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.65x league average) | +0.91 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.43 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.43 | +0.43 |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.23 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.18 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 2.2 season average) | +0.18 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | −0.16 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Arda Güler not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Pio Esposito on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- Madrilian efficiency: Real Madrid currently average 2.8 goals per match compared to their seasonal average of 2.2
- Inter's attacking threat: The visitors showed high volume in recent matches averaging 20.2 shots and 6.2 shots on target
- Perfect historical record: Real Madrid won all 4 of their previous head-to-head fixtures against Inter
Risks
- Fatigue risk for Inter with a short gap of only 3 days of rest since their last competitive game
- Defensive setback for the visitors as key defender F. Dimarco is ruled out with a knee injury
- Attacking casualty for Real Madrid with R. Silva de Goes sidelined by a cruciate ligament tear
All probabilities
Result
Real Madrid38%
Draw26%
Inter37%
Double chance
Real Madrid or draw64%
Inter or draw62%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.563%
Under 2.537%
Over 3.541%
Under 3.559%
Both teams score
Yes66%
No34%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
2:0
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Real Madrid: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Real Madrid: 6 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Inter: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Inter with Lautaro Martínez starting: 2.6 goals/game, without him: 1.7 (14/11 games, last 29)
Lineups
Real Madrid 4-3-3 · Inter 3-5-2
Real Madrid
- 1 T. Courtois
- 24 D. Dumfries
- 16 I. Konaté
- 4 D. Huijsen
- 17 M. Cucurella
- 12 T. Alexander-Arnold
- 8 F. Valverde Dipetta
- 5 J. Bellingham
- 21 B. Abdelkader Diaz
- 10 K. Mbappé
- 7 V. Júnior
Inter
- 1 J. Martínez Riera
- 28 B. Pavard
- 31 Y. Bisseck
- 95 A. Bastoni
- 17 A. Diouf
- 23 N. Barella
- 20 H. Çalhanoğlu
- 21 C. Jones
- 30 C. Zopalato Neves
- 10 L. Martínez
- 9 M. Thuram
Substitutes
- 25 Y. Diomande
- 19 C. Espí Escrihuela
- 18 A. Carreras
- 14 A. Tchouaméni
- 22 A. Rüdiger
- 13 A. Lunin
- 9 E. Moreira de Sousa
- 26 S. Mestre Sánchez
- 27 T. Pitarch Pinar
- 29 J. Cestero Sancho
- 33 M. Rivas Lagos
- 6 J. Stones
- 5 A. Stankovic
- 14 A. Bonny
- 8 P. Sučić
- 11 L. Tomaz de Lima
- 94 F. Esposito
- 25 M. Akanji
- 22 H. Mkhitaryan
- 7 P. Zieliński
- 12 R. Di Gennaro
- 49 I. Provedel
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