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RB Leipzig – Manchester City2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
RB Leipzig
1.22
Total xG
3.95
Manchester City
2.73
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | RB Leipzig | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.84 | +0.84 |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.51 | |
| Attack strength (1.42x league average) | −0.40 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.30 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.17 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Attack strength (1.21x league average) | −0.07 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.01 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Jérémy Doku on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Josko Gvardiol on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.5 vs 2.2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Away: Manchester City average 2.25 goals scored and 0.75 goals conceded per away match in the league this season
- Tactics: Manchester City average 62.8% possession and 19.8 shots per match in recent games
- Head-to-head: Manchester City won 3 of the 5 previous meetings, with 1 loss and 1 draw
Risks
- Home: RB Leipzig average 4.5 goals scored per home match in the league this season and conceded 0 goals in 4 matches
- Defence: Manchester City allowed 1.11 xG per match in 5 games with xG data, but conceded 2 goals per match
All probabilities
Result
RB Leipzig14%
Draw18%
Manchester City68%
Double chance
RB Leipzig or draw32%
Manchester City or draw86%
No draw82%
Goals
Over 1.591%
Under 1.59%
Over 2.575%
Under 2.525%
Over 3.556%
Under 3.544%
Both teams score
Yes67%
No33%
xG score
1:2
From xG 1.22 : 2.73, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
1:3
8%
0:3
7%
1:4
5%
2:2
5%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Rômulo: 4 of 4 goals after minute 60 (last 11 games)
- RB Leipzig: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- RB Leipzig: 8 of 26 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Manchester City: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Manchester City with Phil Foden starting: 2.5 goals/game, without him: 1.8 (10/8 games, last 30)
Lineups
RB Leipzig 4-3-3 · Manchester City 4-1-4-1
RB Leipzig
- 26 M. Vandevoordt
- 17 R. Baku
- 4 W. Orban
- 23 C. Lukeba
- 22 D. Raum
- 21 N. El Aynaoui
- 14 C. Baumgartner
- 6 E. Banzuzi
- 10 B. Gruda
- 40 R. Cardoso da Cruz
- 7 A. Nordby Nusa
Manchester City
- 1 G. Donnarumma
- 27 M. Nunes
- 45 A. Khusanov
- 6 M. Guehi
- 33 N. O'Reilly
- 5 E. Anderson
- 47 P. Foden
- 17 E. Fernández
- 10 M. Cherki
- 7 I. Ndiaye
- 9 E. Haaland
Substitutes
- 27 T. Gomis
- 30 A. Maksimović
- 11 J. Bakayoko
- 39 B. Henrichs
- 16 L. Klostermann
- 13 N. Seiwald
- 20 R. Reitz
- 1 Ø. Håskjold Nyland
- 3 M. Esteve
- 28 C. Nkunku
- 2 A. Koné
- 22 V. de Oliveira Nunes dos Reis
- 28 G. Rulli
- 32 A. Bouaddi
- 3 R. Santos Gato Alves Dias
- 13 M. Bettinelli
- 21 R. Aït Nouri
- 8 M. Kovačić
- 24 J. Gvardiol
- 82 R. Lewis
- 11 J. Doku
- 37 A. Andrade Elias
- 75 F. Samba
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