Match report →
Manchester United – Roma3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Manchester United
1.86
Total xG
3.42
Roma
1.55
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Manchester United | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.4 goals/match) | +0.87 | +0.87 |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 2.1 league avg) | −0.60 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.6 goals/match) | +0.52 | |
| Rising form (3.6 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.52 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.39 | |
| Declining form (0.4 vs 1.7 season average) | −0.39 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.36 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.33 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.28 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Manchester United scores 1.5 goals per match at home in the league this season, Roma 2.8 away per match
- Head-to-head: Manchester United won 3 of the 5 meetings against Roma, with 1 loss and 1 draw
Risks
- Form: Roma won 4 of their last 5 matches, Manchester United went winless in their last 5 matches
- League season: Roma is undefeated in the league this season with 7 wins in 10 matches, Manchester United has 1 win in 9 matches
All probabilities
Result
Manchester United44%
Draw25%
Roma31%
Double chance
Manchester United or draw69%
Roma or draw56%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.566%
Under 2.534%
Over 3.544%
Under 3.556%
Both teams score
Yes68%
No32%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.86 : 1.55, rounded up only from .911% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:2
7%
2:0
6%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Roma: 7 of 15 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Roma: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Manchester United with Kobbie Mainoo starting: 2 goals/game, without him: 0.6 (23/5 games, last 30)
- Manchester United: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (6 points lost)
- Manchester United: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Manchester United: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Manchester United 4-2-3-1 · Roma 3-4-2-1
Manchester United
- 1 S. Lammens
- 15 L. Yoro
- 5 H. Maguire
- 26 A. Heaven
- 2 J. Dalot Teixeira
- 20 C. Noom Quomah
- 37 K. Mainoo
- 16 A. Traoré
- 8 B. Fernandes
- 10 M. Carneiro Da Cunha
- 19 B. Mbeumo
Roma
- 32 D. Vásquez Llach
- 23 G. Mancini
- 26 L. Balerdi Rossa
- 22 M. Hermoso Canseco
- 2 D. Rensch
- 4 B. Cristante
- 15 M. de Roon
- 43 W. França Lima
- 18 M. Malvano
- 86 R. Mora Carvalho
- 14 D. Malen
Substitutes
- 12 K. Darlow
- 7 M. Mount
- 6 L. Martínez
- 11 J. Zirkzee
- 3 N. Mazraoui
- 22 T. Heaton
- 4 M. de Ligt
- 18 Y. Tielemans
- 41 H. Amass
- 17 A. Nascimento dos Santos
- 31 S. Lacey
- 39 T. Fletcher
- 3 K. Koulierakis
- 20 N. Molina Lucero
- 9 S. Castro
- 87 D. Ghilardi
- 61 N. Pisilli
- 5 O. N'Dicka
- 70 G. De Marzi
- 77 E. Lulli
- 63 A. Di Nunzio
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