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Champions League

Liverpool - Atlético de Madrid

09/09/2026, 07:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Liverpool
2.3
Total xG
3.3
Atlético de Madrid
1.1
Most Likely Scores

2:1

10%

1:1

10%

2:0

9%

3:1

7%

3:0

7%
What influences the xG?
LIVADM

Liverpool

Attack strength (1.33x league average)
+0.69
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
-0.31
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 14, 11 places gap)
+0.12
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.02
Cody Gakpo not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Ryan Gravenberch on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
20% of goal output missing (only 80% available)
Strong home record (3.4 vs 1.9 goals/match)

Atlético de Madrid

Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 3, 11 places gap)
-0.13
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.09
Ademola Lookman on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.9 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.47
+0.47
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Atlético de Madrid with Giuliano Simeone starting: 2.2 goals/game, without him: 1.2 (20/6 games, last 29)

  • 2
    Liverpool: 32% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (6 of 19)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

63%

Draw

21%

Away Win

15%

Goals

Over 1.5

86%

Under 1.5

14%

Over 2.5

65%

Under 2.5

35%

Over 3.5

43%

Under 3.5

57%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

85%

Away or Draw

37%

No Draw

79%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Strong home defense: Liverpool allows only 0.95 goals per home game on average, while Atlético struggles away conceding 1.93 on average
  • Squad impact: Liverpool is missing Cody Gakpo and Ryan Gravenberch but retains an active goal share of 80%
  • Tactical control: Liverpool recently dominated with 60.2% possession and averaged 6.2 shots on target per match
Risk Factors
  • Away defensive instability: Atlético de Madrid concedes an average of 1.93 goals per away game
  • Recovery time: Atlético de Madrid enters this fixture with only 4 days of rest since their last match
  • Downward trend: Atlético's recent goal production has slowed down to 1.6 compared to their 1.9 season average
Overview

Liverpool host Atlético de Madrid at Anfield

Champions League match on September 9, 2026, 8:00 PM

Mathematical analysis favors Liverpool with a 64% win probability

Form

Liverpool's form in the last five matches is LDDDW

The home side recorded 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss

Atlético de Madrid's form is LWDWL with 2 wins and 2 losses

Atlético's trend is currently negative while Liverpool remains stable

Form code explanation: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Liverpool scored an average of 1.66 goals per game this season

In home games, the Reds concede only 0.95 goals on average

Atlético de Madrid score 1.64 goals away but concede an average of 1.93

The model estimates a 65% chance for over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

There have been 5 direct encounters between the teams

Liverpool won 3 matches and Atlético de Madrid won 2

The last meeting on September 17, 2025, ended in a 3-2 victory for Liverpool

Key Players

Dominik Szoboszlai averages 0.54 goals per 90 minutes with a rating of 7.73

Alexander Isak shows a rising trend with 3 goals in his last five matches

Florian Wirtz recorded 1 goal and 3 assists this season with a 7.33 rating

Julián Alvarez leads the line with 10 goals this season and a 7.63 rating

Álex Baena shows an upward form with 2 goals and 1 assist in recent matches

Giuliano Simeone recorded 1 goal and 1 assist in his last four appearances

Goalkeepers

Alisson starts in goal for Liverpool with a season rating of 7.00

Jan Oblak plays in goal having secured 14 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match is played on grass at Anfield

Venue stats show an average of 2.8 goals per match and an 80% BTTS rate

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