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Liverpool – Atlético de Madrid2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Liverpool
2.28
Total xG
3.34
Atlético de Madrid
1.07
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Liverpool | Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.33x league average) | +0.69 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.47 | +0.47 |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | −0.31 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 3, 11 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 14, 11 places gap) | +0.12 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Cody Gakpo not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Ryan Gravenberch on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 20% of goal output missing (only 80% available) | ||
| Ademola Lookman on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (3.4 vs 1.9 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Strong home defense: Liverpool allows only 0.95 goals per home game on average, while Atlético struggles away conceding 1.93 on average
- Squad impact: Liverpool is missing Cody Gakpo and Ryan Gravenberch but retains an active goal share of 80%
- Tactical control: Liverpool recently dominated with 60.2% possession and averaged 6.2 shots on target per match
Risks
- Away defensive instability: Atlético de Madrid concedes an average of 1.93 goals per away game
- Recovery time: Atlético de Madrid enters this fixture with only 4 days of rest since their last match
- Downward trend: Atlético's recent goal production has slowed down to 1.6 compared to their 1.9 season average
All probabilities
Result
Liverpool63%
Draw21%
Atlético de Madrid15%
Double chance
Liverpool or draw85%
Atlético de Madrid or draw37%
No draw79%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.565%
Under 2.535%
Over 3.543%
Under 3.557%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
2:1
10%
1:1
10%
2:0
9%
3:1
7%
3:0
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Atlético de Madrid with Giuliano Simeone starting: 2.2 goals/game, without him: 1.2 (20/6 games, last 29)
- Liverpool: 32% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (6 of 19)
Lineups
Liverpool 4-2-3-1 · Atlético de Madrid 3-5-2
Liverpool
- 1 A. Becker
- 33 R. Araújo da Silva
- 5 J. Jacquet
- 4 V. van Dijk
- 6 Milos Kerkez
- 8 D. Szoboszlai
- 10 A. Mac Allister
- 29 B. Barcola
- 7 F. Wirtz
- 73 R. Ngumoha
- 9 A. Isak
Atlético de Madrid
- 13 J. Oblak
- 18 M. Pubill Pagès
- 21 C. Romero
- 17 D. Hancko
- 14 M. Llorente Moreno
- 8 Pablo Barrios Rivas
- 6 J. Resurrección Merodio
- 10 A. Rodríguez
- 20 G. Simeone
- 7 K. Lee
- 19 J. Álvarez
Substitutes
- 23 V. Muñoz Villanueva
- 67 L. Koumas
- 42 T. Nyoni
- 28 F. Woodman
- 30 J. Frimpong
- 25 G. Mamardashvili
- 38 R. Gravenberch
- 53 J. McConnell
- 21 K. Tsimikas
- 76 J. Danns
- 44 L. Chambers
- 22 A. Grimaldo García
- 4 R. Mendoza Martinez Moya
- 5 J. de Souza Cardoso
- 1 J. Musso
- 24 R. Le Normand
- 11 A. Lookman
- 23 M. Hjulmand
- 15 J. David
- 3 O. Vaargas
- 30 D. Martinez Moreno
- 27 J. Domínguez
- 46 J. Castillo Frutos
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