Match report →
Fenerbahçe – Liverpool3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Fenerbahçe
1.10
Total xG
3.46
Liverpool
2.36
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Fenerbahçe | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.84 | +0.84 |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.80 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.50 | |
| Attack strength (1.33x league average) | −0.44 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.38 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.27 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.27 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.21 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 2.1 season average) | −0.21 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 31 vs 3, 28 places gap) | −0.19 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 31, 28 places gap) | +0.17 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.07 | |
| Florian Wirtz on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Cody Gakpo on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Ryan Gravenberch not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.9 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: Liverpool with 4 wins in their last 5 matches, Fenerbahçe with 1 win in 5 matches
- Away: Liverpool scored 1.75 goals per game in 4 away league matches this season and conceded 0.75 per game
Risks
- Home form: Fenerbahçe scored 3.4 goals per game in 5 home matches in the league this season
- Rest period: Liverpool with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Fenerbahçe15%
Draw21%
Liverpool64%
Double chance
Fenerbahçe or draw36%
Liverpool or draw85%
No draw79%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.567%
Under 2.533%
Over 3.545%
Under 3.555%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
xG score
1:2
From xG 1.10 : 2.36, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
9%
0:2
9%
1:3
8%
0:3
7%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Fenerbahçe: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Liverpool with Rio Ngumoha starting: 2.4 goals/game, without him: 1.2 (10/5 games, last 30)
Lineups
Fenerbahçe 4-3-3 · Liverpool 4-2-3-1
Fenerbahçe
- 31 E. Santana de Moraes
- 27 N. Cabral Semedo
- 37 M. Škriniar
- 21 K. Peprah Oppong
- 3 A. Brown
- 6 M. Guendouzi Olié
- 5 İ. Yüksek
- 91 N. Kanté
- 11 M. Greenwood
- 9 R. Lukaku Menama
- 17 İ. Kahveci
Liverpool
- 1 A. Becker
- 2 J. Gomez
- 5 J. Jacquet
- 4 V. van Dijk
- 21 K. Tsimikas
- 42 T. Nyoni
- 10 A. Mac Allister
- 23 V. Muñoz Villanueva
- 8 D. Szoboszlai
- 73 R. Ngumoha
- 29 B. Barcola
Substitutes
- 19 V. Muriqi
- 77 O. Mimović
- 18 M. Müldür
- 7 M. Aktürkoğlu
- 14 Y. Demir
- 45 N. Dorgeles
- 13 T. Çetin
- 28 B. Elmaz
- 70 O. Aydın
- 22 M. Mercan
- 34 F. Günok
- 33 R. Araújo da Silva
- 67 L. Koumas
- 9 A. Isak
- 28 F. Woodman
- 7 F. Wirtz
- 25 G. Mamardashvili
- 6 Milos Kerkez
- 18 C. Gakpo
- 53 J. McConnell
- 76 J. Danns
- 44 L. Chambers
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →