Match report →
Paris Saint Germain – FC Barcelona4 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Paris Saint Germain
2.16
Total xG
4.08
FC Barcelona
1.92
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Paris Saint Germain | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.90 | |
| Attack strength (1.23x league average) | −0.80 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.77 | +0.77 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (4.4 goals/match) | +0.48 | |
| Rising form (4.4 vs 2.8 season average) | +0.48 | |
| Attack strength (1.82x league average) | +0.46 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.36 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.20 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | −0.16 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 5, 6 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 11, 6 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| Nuno Mendes not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Fermín López on the bench (6 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.5 vs 2.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form: Paris Saint Germain won 5 of their last 5 matches
- Attack: Paris Saint Germain averaged 8.4 shots on target per match in their last 5 matches
- Head-to-head: Paris Saint Germain won 3 of 5 meetings against FC Barcelona with 1 loss
Risks
- Form: FC Barcelona won 9 out of 9 matches in the league this season, scoring 4.33 goals per match
- Personnel: Paris Saint Germain without N. Mendes, in the starting XI in 3 of the last 5 matches
- Rest days: Paris Saint Germain with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Paris Saint Germain44%
Draw22%
FC Barcelona34%
Double chance
Paris Saint Germain or draw66%
FC Barcelona or draw56%
No draw78%
Goals
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.577%
Under 2.523%
Over 3.558%
Under 3.542%
Both teams score
Yes76%
No24%
xG score
2:2
From xG 2.16 : 1.92, rounded up only from .97% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
8%
1:2
7%
3:1
5%
3:2
5%
4:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Barcelona: 11 wins in 12 games with xG above 1.0 (92% win rate)
- FC Barcelona: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FC Barcelona with Raphinha starting: 3.9 goals/game, without him: 1.9 (16/11 games, last 30)
- FC Barcelona: goal in the first 15 minutes in 7 of 12 games (58%)
- Paris Saint Germain: 3 comebacks in 4 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)
- Paris Saint Germain: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
Lineups
Paris Saint Germain 4-3-3 · FC Barcelona 4-2-3-1
Paris Saint Germain
- 39 M. Safonov
- 2 A. Hakimi Mouh
- 5 M. Aoás Corrêa
- 51 W. Pacho Tenorio
- 21 L. Hernández Pi
- 87 J. Gonçalves Neves
- 17 V. Machado Ferreira
- 8 F. Ruiz Peña
- 14 D. Doue
- 10 O. Dembélé
- 7 K. Kvaratskhelia
FC Barcelona
- 1 J. Pons
- 12 X. Espart Font
- 5 P. Cubarsí Paredes
- 18 G. Martín Langreo
- 2 J. Cavaco Cancelo
- 22 M. Bernal Casas
- 8 P. López
- 10 L. Yamal Nasraoui Ebana
- 20 D. Olmo Carvajal
- 17 A. Gordon
- 11 Raphinha
Substitutes
- 27 P. Fernández Sarmiento
- 9 F. Torres García
- 11 M. Akliouche
- 47 Q. Ndjantou Mbitcha
- 6 I. Zabarnyi
- 24 S. Mayulu
- 30 L. Chevalier
- 4 L. Lopes Beraldo
- 33 W. Zaire Emery
- 12 L. Digne
- 22 M. Godts
- 80 Adam Mouak
- 14 K. Adeyemi
- 25 D. Livaković
- 13 W. Szczęsny
- 3 A. Balde Martínez
- 21 F. de Jong
- 7 F. López Marín
- 6 Pablo Gaviria
- 9 G. de Jesus
- 16 Rodri
- 29 H. Abdel Karim
- 4 B. Pérez
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