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FC Barcelona – Aston Villa3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
FC Barcelona
3.26
Total xG
4.29
Aston Villa
1.02
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC Barcelona | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 2.1 league avg) | −0.92 | |
| High-scoring league (3.4 goals/match) | +0.87 | +0.87 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.25 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.25 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.6 goals/match) | +0.24 | |
| Rising form (3.6 vs 2.8 season average) | +0.24 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.09 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.06 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | −0.04 | |
| Attack strength (1.29x league average) | −0.01 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: FC Barcelona averages 4 goals per game at home in the league this season, Aston Villa concedes 1.5 per game away
- Possession: FC Barcelona recorded 66.4% possession and 7.8 shots on target per game in recent matches
Risks
- Form: Aston Villa remained undefeated in their last 5 matches with 4 wins and 1 draw
- Rest period: FC Barcelona with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
FC Barcelona80%
Draw13%
Aston Villa8%
Double chance
FC Barcelona or draw92%
Aston Villa or draw20%
No draw87%
Goals
Over 1.593%
Under 1.57%
Over 2.580%
Under 2.520%
Over 3.562%
Under 3.538%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
xG score
3:1
From xG 3.26 : 1.02, rounded up only from .98% probability
Other likely scores
3:0
8%
2:1
8%
4:1
7%
4:0
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Barcelona: 12 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- FC Barcelona: 10 wins in 12 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)
- FC Barcelona with Raphinha starting: 3.9 goals/game, without him: 1.9 (16/11 games, last 30)
- FC Barcelona: goal in the first 15 minutes in 7 of 12 games (58%)
Lineups
FC Barcelona 4-2-3-1 · Aston Villa 4-2-3-1
FC Barcelona
- 1 J. Pons
- 4 B. Pérez
- 5 P. Cubarsí Paredes
- 18 G. Martín Langreo
- 2 J. Cavaco Cancelo
- 16 Rodri
- 8 P. López
- 10 L. Yamal Nasraoui Ebana
- 7 F. López Marín
- 17 A. Gordon
- 11 Raphinha
Aston Villa
- 1 Z. Suzuki
- 2 M. Cash
- 3 V. Nilsson Lindelöf
- 14 P. Francisco Torres
- 22 I. Maatsen
- 35 Gomes
- 8 B. Kamara
- 7 J. McGinn
- 44 J. Manzambi
- 10 E. Buendía
- 11 N. Jackson
Substitutes
- 14 K. Adeyemi
- 25 D. Livaković
- 13 W. Szczęsny
- 3 A. Balde Martínez
- 21 F. de Jong
- 22 M. Bernal Casas
- 6 Pablo Gaviria
- 9 G. de Jesus
- 29 H. Abdel Karim
- 41 ?. Campos Camí
- 32 O. Goren
- 40 G. Víctor Delgado
- 27 L. Goretzka
- 19 I. Mbaye
- 5 T. Mings
- 40 M. Bizot
- 47 A. da Rocha dos Santos
- 6 R. Barkley
- 4 T. Harwood-Bellis
- 17 A. Garnacho
- 18 K. Bakumo-Abraham
- 42 J. Wright
- 53 G. Hemmings
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