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Slavia Praha – Arsenal1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Slavia Praha
0.89
Total xG
3.36
Arsenal
2.48
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Slavia Praha | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.84 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.84 | +0.84 |
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.65 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.42 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.18 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 34, 33 places gap) | +0.17 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 34 vs 1, 33 places gap) | −0.16 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Lukas Provod on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Kai Havertz on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jurriën Timber on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.6 vs 2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form: Arsenal has 4 wins from their last 5 matches, Slavia Praha has 1
- Head-to-head: Arsenal won 3 of 5 meetings against Slavia Praha, with 2 draws
- League season: Arsenal won 8 out of 9 matches in the league this season
Risks
- Squad: B. Saka is absent, scoring 3 of 14 league goals for Arsenal players this season (21%)
- League season: Slavia Praha is undefeated in 13 league matches this season with 9 wins and 4 draws
All probabilities
Result
Slavia Praha11%
Draw18%
Arsenal71%
Double chance
Slavia Praha or draw29%
Arsenal or draw89%
No draw82%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.565%
Under 2.535%
Over 3.543%
Under 3.557%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
xG score
0:2
From xG 0.89 : 2.48, rounded up only from .911% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
0:3
9%
1:1
9%
1:3
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Arsenal: 9 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (82% win rate)
- Arsenal: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Arsenal: 35% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (7 of 20)
- Arsenal: 70% of all goals in the second half (14 of 20, last 12 games)
Lineups
Slavia Praha 4-2-3-1 · Arsenal 4-2-3-1
Slavia Praha
- 29 N. Domchak
- 27 T. Vlček
- 3 T. Holeš
- 4 D. Zima
- 8 Oskar Kubiak
- 16 D. Moses
- 23 M. Sadílek
- 20 E. Ayaosi
- 15 M. Suleiman
- 10 D. Šturm
- 30 W. Nowak
Arsenal
- 1 D. Raya Martin
- 4 B. White
- 15 E. Konsa Ngoyo
- 6 G. dos Santos Magalhães
- 5 P. Hincapié Reyna
- 36 M. Zubimendi Ibáñez
- 41 D. Rice
- 20 C. Madueke
- 23 M. Merino Zazón
- 10 E. Eze
- 14 V. Gyökeres
Substitutes
- 35 J. Markovič
- 2 ?. Chaloupek
- 13 M. Chytil
- 17 L. Provod
- 39 D. Jurásek
- 22 T. Diakité
- 40 A. Rezek
- 42 M. Konečný
- 6 C. N'Guessan
- 32 P. Kačor
- 47 D. Barcot
- 53 M. Kotrba
- 30 I. Meslier
- 13 K. Arrizabalaga Revuelta
- 56 M. Dowman
- 3 C. Mosquera
- 8 M. Ødegaard
- 12 J. Timber
- 33 R. Calafiori
- 29 K. Havertz
- 2 W. Saliba
- 49 M. Lewis-Skelly
- 39 B. Guimarães Rodriguez Moura
- 17 C. Tzolis
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