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LASK Linz – Liverpool3 : 6
Why the model thinks so
LASK Linz
1.84
Total xG
3.14
Liverpool
1.30
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | LASK Linz | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.7 goals/match) | +1.16 | +1.16 |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 2.5 league avg) | −1.12 | |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | −0.31 | |
| Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean | +0.28 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.25 | |
| Attack strength (1.25x league average) | −0.18 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.17 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.17 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.15 | |
| Dominik Szoboszlai not in squad (5 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Virgil van Dijk on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Alexis Mac Allister on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 81% of goal output missing (only 31% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.8 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Squad Impact: Liverpool have only 32% active goal share available, missing Dominik Szoboszlai, Virgil van Dijk, and Alexis Mac Allister
- Tactical Metrics: LASK Linz recently averaged 3.8 shots on target with 58% possession, compared to Liverpool's 4.8 shots on target
- Model Forecast: The mathematical model calculates a 49% home win chance with 1.84 vs 1.30 expected goals
Risks
- Short Rest: Both teams enter with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Away Defense: Liverpool concede 1.94 goals per away game on average
- Low Shot Count: LASK Linz recently averaged just 3.8 shots on target
All probabilities
Result
LASK Linz49%
Draw26%
Liverpool26%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.561%
Under 2.539%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Double chance
LASK Linz or draw74%
Liverpool or draw51%
No draw75%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
7%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
3:6
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Liverpool: 44% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (8 of 18)
- LASK Linz: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Liverpool: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
Lineups
LASK Linz 5-4-1 · Liverpool 4-2-3-1
LASK Linz
- 1 L. Jungwirth
- 20 K. Mølgaard Jørgensen
- 4 X. Mbuyamba
- 43 J. Tornich
- 16 A. Andrade Cedeño
- 25 J. Nyabeye Dibango
- 9 K. Daněk
- 6 M. Bogarde
- 18 A. Schöpf
- 27 C. Lang
- 7 S. Adeniran
Liverpool
- 1 A. Becker
- 30 J. Frimpong
- 33 R. Araújo da Silva
- 5 J. Jacquet
- 21 K. Tsimikas
- 38 R. Gravenberch
- 42 T. Nyoni
- 73 R. Ngumoha
- 7 F. Wirtz
- 29 B. Barcola
- 67 L. Koumas
Substitutes
- 23 D. Elfadli
- 10 R. Ljubicic
- 11 S. Kalajdzic
- 29 F. Flecker
- 33 T. Schützenauer
- 50 F. Schillinger
- 3 M. Freckleton
- 21 M. Verhaeghe
- 45 N. Kane
- 23 V. Muñoz Villanueva
- 28 F. Woodman
- 25 G. Mamardashvili
- 6 Milos Kerkez
- 10 A. Mac Allister
- 2 J. Gomez
- 4 V. van Dijk
- 53 J. McConnell
- 76 J. Danns
- 92 W. Omoruyi
- 44 L. Chambers
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