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Borussia Dortmund – Real Betis2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Borussia Dortmund
1.95
Total xG
3.11
Real Betis
1.15
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Borussia Dortmund | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.84 | +0.84 |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.81 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.32 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.28 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.27 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 2.1 season average) | −0.24 | |
| Attack strength (1.39x league average) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.02 | |
| Maximilian Beier not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Dortmund scores 2 goals per match at home in the league, Real Betis concedes 1.4 away
- Defense: Dortmund concedes 0.75 goals per match in the league this season and is undefeated in 8 matches
Risks
- Form: Real Betis scored 8 goals in their last 5 matches (1.6 per match) and recorded 3 wins
- Shots: Real Betis recorded 6 shots on target per match in their last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Borussia Dortmund55%
Draw25%
Real Betis21%
Double chance
Borussia Dortmund or draw79%
Real Betis or draw45%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
xG score
2:1
From xG 1.95 : 1.15, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
2:0
9%
3:1
6%
1:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Borussia Dortmund: 9 goals from minute 80 onwards in 11 games. Against Werder Bremen: 2 goals (80', 85')
- Borussia Dortmund: 8 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- Borussia Dortmund: first goal in 8 of 10 games (80%)
- Real Betis: 43% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (10 of 23)
- Borussia Dortmund: 78% of all goals in the second half (14 of 18, last 11 games)
Lineups
Borussia Dortmund 3-4-2-1 · Real Betis 4-2-3-1
Borussia Dortmund
- 1 G. Kobel
- 3 W. Anton
- 4 N. Schlotterbeck
- 5 R. Bensebaini
- 26 J. Ryerson
- 25 J. Veerman
- 8 F. Nmecha
- 24 D. Svensson
- 7 J. Bellingham
- 21 F. Soares Silva
- 9 S. Guirassy
Real Betis
- 1 Á. Vallés Rosa
- 12 ?. Ortiz Monterrey
- 3 D. Llorente Ríos
- 4 Natan
- 16 D. Gómez
- 6 F. Bernal Cruz
- 25 D. Ceballos Fernández
- 7 A. dos Santos
- 18 N. Deossa Suárez
- 10 A. Ezzalzouli
- 19 T. Parrott
Substitutes
- 30 P. Drewes
- 17 C. Chukwuemeka
- 33 A. Meyer
- 39 F. Mane
- 20 M. Sabitzer
- 14 M. Beier
- 18 E. Nwaneri
- 19 K. Karetsas
- 22 K. Gadou
- 40 S. Inacio
- 41 M. Albert
- 44 E. de Pina Duarte dos Santos
- 13 D. Conde Alcolado
- 11 F. García Torres
- 20 G. Lo Celso
- 22 F. Alarcón Suárez
- 2 H. Bellerín Moruno
- 17 R. Riquelme Reche
- 8 P. Fornals Malla
- 5 M. Bartra Aregall
- 24 A. Ruibal García
- 21 M. Roca Junqué
- 27 J. Morante Antúnez
- 31 M. González Pallarés
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