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VfB Stuttgart – Atlético de Madrid1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
VfB Stuttgart
1.60
Total xG
3.56
Atlético de Madrid
1.96
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | VfB Stuttgart | Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.77 | +0.77 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.23 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 2 season average) | −0.23 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.17 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.12 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.02 | |
| Ademola Lookman on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.9 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: Atlético de Madrid won all 5 of their last 5 matches, while VfB Stuttgart won 2 of their last 5 matches
- Attack: Atlético de Madrid scored 2.11 goals per game in the league this season, VfB Stuttgart conceded 1.67 per game
- Shots: Atlético de Madrid averaged 7.6 shots on target per game in their last 5 matches, VfB Stuttgart 6.2 per game
Risks
- Home: VfB Stuttgart scored 2 goals per game at home in the league this season in 2 matches
- xG: VfB Stuttgart generated 1.96 xG per game in 5 matches with xG data, but scored 1.2 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
VfB Stuttgart31%
Draw24%
Atlético de Madrid45%
Double chance
VfB Stuttgart or draw55%
Atlético de Madrid or draw69%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.569%
Under 2.531%
Over 3.548%
Under 3.552%
Both teams score
Yes70%
No30%
xG score
1:2
From xG 1.60 : 1.96, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
7%
2:2
7%
1:3
6%
2:3
5%
1:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Atlético de Madrid: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Atlético de Madrid: 8 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Real Sociedad: 3 goals (84', 90', 90+5')
- Atlético de Madrid: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
Lineups
VfB Stuttgart 4-2-3-1 · Atlético de Madrid 4-4-2
VfB Stuttgart
- 41 D. Seimen
- 4 J. Karaboue Vagnomann
- 3 R. Hendriks
- 24 J. Chabot
- 7 M. Mittelstädt
- 21 G. Prömel
- 6 A. Stiller
- 18 J. Leweling
- 11 B. El Khannous
- 10 C. Führich
- 26 D. Undav
Atlético de Madrid
- 13 J. Oblak
- 14 M. Llorente Moreno
- 18 M. Pubill Pagès
- 17 D. Hancko
- 22 A. Grimaldo García
- 20 G. Simeone
- 8 Pablo Barrios Rivas
- 23 M. Hjulmand
- 10 A. Rodríguez
- 15 J. David
- 19 J. Álvarez
Substitutes
- 17 D. Pejcinovic
- 9 E. Demirović
- 14 L. Jaquez
- 29 F. Jeltsch
- 1 F. Bredlow
- 22 L. Assignon
- 2 A. Al Dakhil
- 16 A. Karazor
- 28 N. Nartey
- 44 L. Sauer
- 33 M. Funk
- 4 R. Mendoza Martinez Moya
- 9 A. Sørloth
- 5 J. de Souza Cardoso
- 1 J. Musso
- 24 R. Le Normand
- 7 K. Lee
- 11 A. Lookman
- 3 O. Vaargas
- 30 D. Martinez Moreno
- 16 A. Ortiz Sanchez
- 27 J. Domínguez
- 46 J. Castillo Frutos
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