Match report →
Feyenoord – Inter0 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Feyenoord
1.26
Total xG
3.98
Inter
2.72
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Feyenoord | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.4 goals/match) | +0.87 | +0.87 |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 2.1 league avg) | −0.57 | |
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | +0.34 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.23 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (1.8 vs 2.3 season average) | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Attack strength (1.62x league average) | −0.00 | |
| Tsuyoshi Watanabe on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 54% of goal output missing (only 45% available) | ||
| Alessandro Bastoni not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Form: Inter won 4 of their last 5 matches, while Feyenoord recorded 2 wins in their last 5 matches
- Attack: Feyenoord average 3 goals per match in the league this season, Inter average 2.6 goals per match in Serie A
- Shots: Inter averaged 19.6 shots per match in the last 5 matches, Feyenoord averaged 15 shots per match
Risks
- Form: Feyenoord are undefeated in 11 league matches this season with 7 wins and 4 draws
All probabilities
Result
Feyenoord15%
Draw18%
Inter67%
Double chance
Feyenoord or draw33%
Inter or draw85%
No draw82%
Goals
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.576%
Under 2.524%
Over 3.556%
Under 3.544%
Both teams score
Yes68%
No32%
xG score
1:2
From xG 1.26 : 2.72, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
1:3
8%
0:3
6%
2:2
5%
1:4
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Inter: 48% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (13 of 27)
- Inter: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Feyenoord with Nacho Ferri starting: 2.7 goals/game, without him: 1.5 (10/17 games, last 30)
- Inter: 3 comebacks in 6 games after trailing past minute 75 (7 points rescued)
- Inter: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Feyenoord 4-3-3 · Inter 3-5-2
Feyenoord
- 1 T. Ernst
- 26 G. Read
- 24 T. Kraaijeveld
- 35 M. Marmol Medina
- 16 J. López Carballo
- 8 G. Zechiël
- 34 C. Vanhoutte
- 28 O. Targhalline
- 23 A. Hadj Moussa
- 19 I. Ferri Julià
- 10 L. Valente
Inter
- 1 J. Martínez Riera
- 31 Y. Bisseck
- 25 M. Akanji
- 30 C. Zopalato Neves
- 99 D. Spence
- 23 N. Barella
- 20 H. Çalhanoğlu
- 7 P. Zieliński
- 32 F. Dimarco
- 94 F. Esposito
- 9 M. Thuram
Substitutes
- 17 R. Nelson
- 39 L. Bossin
- 27 G. Diarra
- 4 T. Watanabe
- 11 G. Albuquerque Borges
- 49 S. van Persie
- 14 S. Steijn
- 20 M. Deijl
- 22 T. van den Elshout
- 57 J. Schaken
- 33 F. Kastenmeier
- 65 D. Slory
- 28 B. Pavard
- 5 A. Stankovic
- 14 A. Bonny
- 8 P. Sučić
- 22 H. Mkhitaryan
- 12 R. Di Gennaro
- 17 A. Diouf
- 49 I. Provedel
- 48 M. Mosconi
- 53 M. Lavelli
- 46 L. Bovio
- 45 F. Stante
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