Champions League
Olympique Marseille - Liverpool
01/21/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
0.6
1.1
0.6
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
31%
Draw
38%
Away Win
31%
Goals
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
15%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
69%
Away or Draw
69%
No Draw
62%
Both Score
Yes
42%
No
58%
Key Factors
- Marseille's home strength: 2.18 goals per home game
- Liverpool's unbeaten away streak on natural grass (5 wins, 5 draws)
- Contrasting form: Liverpool is unbeaten in 5 games, while Marseille is inconsistent
Risk Factors
- Numerous absences, including key players like Mohamed Salah (doubtful), could affect both teams' performance
- The tight head-to-head record (3-2 wins for Liverpool) suggests an open match
- Limited informative value of the league standings due to inconsistent match data (games played = 0)
Overview
Olympique Marseille (16th place, 9 points) hosts Liverpool (11th place, 12 points) at the Stade Vélodrome. The Champions League match takes place on January 21, 2026, 9:00 PM. Both teams are fighting for a better position in the league phase.
Form
Olympique Marseille shows inconsistent form with LWWLW (3 wins, 2 losses from the last 5 games). Liverpool is more stable with DDDWD and is unbeaten in the last five matches (1 win, 4 draws). W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
Olympique Marseille is more potent offensively, averaging 2.28 goals per game compared to Liverpool's 1.5. Marseille is particularly dangerous at home, scoring 2.18 goals per game. Liverpool's defense concedes an average of 1.32 goals, while Marseille's is at 1.06.
Head-to-Head
In 5 previous encounters, Liverpool has a slight edge with 3 wins to Olympique Marseille's 2. The goal difference is 8:4 in favor of Liverpool. The last meeting was won by Liverpool.
Key Players
For Olympique Marseille, Mason Greenwood stands out with 4 goals in the last 5 games. Pierre-Emile Højbjerg is in rising form with 1 goal and 2 assists. For Liverpool, Florian Wirtz is in top form with 3 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 matches, supported by Dominik Szoboszlai, who has already contributed 3 goals and 3 assists this season.
Goalkeepers
Gerónimo Rulli is in goal for Olympique Marseille; the team has achieved 6 clean sheets this season. For Liverpool, Alisson is the goalkeeper; his team has managed 7 clean sheets this season.
Influences
The Stade Vélodrome sees an average of 2.6 goals per game. Olympique Marseille is strong at home, having won 6 out of 10 matches on natural grass. Liverpool is unbeaten away from home on this surface (5 wins, 5 draws), posing a significant challenge.