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Champions League

Borussia Dortmund - Villarreal

09/08/2026, 07:00 PM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
Borussia Dortmund
2.0
Total xG
3.0
Villarreal
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

3:1

6%

3:0

6%
What influences the xG?
BDVIL

Borussia Dortmund

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.55
Attack strength (1.28x league average)
+0.21
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
-0.18
Standings advantage (pos 17 vs 35, 18 places gap)
+0.14
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
-0.03
Jobe Bellingham on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)

Villarreal

Attack strength (1.62x league average)
+0.20
Standings disadvantage (pos 35 vs 17, 18 places gap)
-0.19
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.14
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.7 season average)
+0.14
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
-0.10
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.7 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.43
+0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Borussia Dortmund: 8 wins in 9 games with xG above 1.0 (89% win rate)

  • 2
    Borussia Dortmund: 9 of 24 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Villarreal: 70% of all goals in the first half (16 of 23, last 12 games)

  • 4
    Villarreal: 35% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (8 of 23)

  • 5
    Villarreal: dropped a lead in 5 of 9 games (12 points lost)

  • 6
    Borussia Dortmund: 4 of 9 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 11 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

57%

Draw

24%

Away Win

19%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

81%

Away or Draw

43%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Home strength vs away weakness: Dortmund's strong home record meets a vulnerable away defense that concedes 2.08 goals per game on average
  • Form favors Dortmund: The hosts won four of their last five matches, while Villarreal is winless in four matches
  • Offensive power in head-to-head: Dortmund clearly dominated the only previous meeting with a 4-0 victory
Risk Factors
  • High fatigue risk: Both teams enter this match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
  • Villarreal's recent scoring trend: The visitors are scoring 2.2 goals per game recently, higher than their season average of 1.7
  • Defensive absences for Dortmund: Key defensive players like R. Bensebaini and E. Can are sidelined with injuries
Overview

Borussia Dortmund host Villarreal at the Signal Iduna Park

Champions League match on September 8, 2026, 8:00 PM

Dortmund sits in 9th place, while Villarreal is in 12th

Both teams start this league phase matchday level on points

Form

Dortmund shows strong form with four wins in their last five matches

The hosts' form string is LWWWW

Villarreal is in a tougher period with the form string WDDLL

Most recently, the Spanish side suffered two consecutive defeats

Explanation: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Dortmund scores an average of 2.06 goals per game while conceding 1.00

The Black and Yellows are particularly strong at home, averaging 2.11 home goals per match

Villarreal scores 1.89 goals on average but concedes 2.08 goals per away game

In away games, the visitors kept only 3 clean sheets in 13 matches

Head-to-Head

There has been one head-to-head match in history

Dortmund won this match 4-0 at home on November 25, 2025

Historical dominance is clearly on the side of the home team

Key Players

Serhou Guirassy scored 4 goals in the last 5 games with rising form

Felix Nmecha has scored 3 goals this season in the Borussia midfield

Georges Mikautadze has scored twice in his last 4 matches for the visitors

Goalkeepers

Gregor Kobel guards the goal for Borussia with a season average rating of 6.65

PĂ©ter GulĂĄcsi starts in goal for Villarreal

Dortmund recorded 15 clean sheets this season, compared to Villarreal's 8

Influences

Home advantage favors Dortmund at the Signal Iduna Park, conceding just 0.84 goals per home game

The match will be played on natural grass

Historically, matches at this venue average 3.4 total goals per game

Both teams face a short recovery period with only 3 days since their last match

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