Match report →
Borussia Dortmund – Villarreal3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Borussia Dortmund
1.96
Total xG
3.01
Villarreal
1.06
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Borussia Dortmund | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.55 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.43 | +0.43 |
| Attack strength (1.28x league average) | +0.21 | |
| Attack strength (1.62x league average) | +0.20 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 35 vs 17, 18 places gap) | −0.19 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.18 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 17 vs 35, 18 places gap) | +0.14 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.10 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Jobe Bellingham on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home strength vs away weakness: Dortmund's strong home record meets a vulnerable away defense that concedes 2.08 goals per game on average
- Form favors Dortmund: The hosts won four of their last five matches, while Villarreal is winless in four matches
- Offensive power in head-to-head: Dortmund clearly dominated the only previous meeting with a 4-0 victory
Risks
- High fatigue risk: Both teams enter this match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
- Villarreal's recent scoring trend: The visitors are scoring 2.2 goals per game recently, higher than their season average of 1.7
- Defensive absences for Dortmund: Key defensive players like R. Bensebaini and E. Can are sidelined with injuries
All probabilities
Result
Borussia Dortmund57%
Draw24%
Villarreal19%
Double chance
Borussia Dortmund or draw81%
Villarreal or draw43%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
3:1
6%
3:0
6%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Borussia Dortmund: 8 wins in 9 games with xG above 1.0 (89% win rate)
- Borussia Dortmund: 9 of 24 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Villarreal: 70% of all goals in the first half (16 of 23, last 12 games)
- Villarreal: 35% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (8 of 23)
- Villarreal: dropped a lead in 5 of 9 games (12 points lost)
- Borussia Dortmund: 4 of 9 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 11 games)
Lineups
Borussia Dortmund 3-4-2-1 · Villarreal 4-2-3-1
Borussia Dortmund
- 1 G. Kobel
- 22 K. Gadou
- 3 W. Anton
- 24 D. Svensson
- 26 J. Ryerson
- 25 J. Veerman
- 8 F. Nmecha
- 14 M. Beier
- 19 K. Karetsas
- 20 M. Sabitzer
- 9 S. Guirassy
Villarreal
- 25 P. Gulácsi
- 15 ?. Mouriño González
- 6 P. Navarro Badenes
- 12 R. Palma Veiga
- 23 S. Cardona Bermúdez
- 14 S. Comesaña Veiga
- 18 P. Gueye
- 17 T. Buchanan
- 24 N. Saliba
- 21 T. Oluwaseyi
- 9 G. Mikautadze
Substitutes
- 30 P. Drewes
- 17 C. Chukwuemeka
- 33 A. Meyer
- 21 F. Soares Silva
- 7 J. Bellingham
- 18 E. Nwaneri
- 40 S. Inacio
- 49 L. Reggiani
- 41 M. Albert
- 36 K. de Almeida
- 11 Ilias Chakkour
- 22 A. Pérez Gutiérrez
- 2 L. Costa
- 19 N. Pépé
- 1 L. Reis Júnior
- 7 G. Moreno Balaguero
- 10 A. Moleiro González
- 13 R. Gómez Peris
- 16 Carlos Macià
- 5 A. Diatta
- 3 A. Freeman
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →