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Porto – Napoli4 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Porto
1.91
Total xG
3.12
Napoli
1.21
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Porto | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.84 | +0.84 |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.43 | |
| Attack strength (1.24x league average) | +0.40 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.28 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.18 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.18 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Mathías Olivera not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.6 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Porto average 2.6 goals per game at home in the league this season, Napoli concede 1.33 per game away
- Form: Porto have won all 10 league games this season, while Napoli have 4 wins from 10 league matches
Risks
- Attack: Napoli scored 2.2 goals per game in their last 5 matches
- Form: Porto lost 2 of their last 5 matches in all competitions
All probabilities
Result
Porto52%
Draw25%
Napoli23%
Double chance
Porto or draw77%
Napoli or draw48%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
xG score
2:1
From xG 1.91 : 1.21, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
12%
2:0
8%
3:1
6%
1:2
6%
4:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Porto: 9 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (82% win rate)
- Borja Sainz: 5 of 5 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Porto: 8 of 25 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Napoli: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Napoli: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Porto 4-3-3 · Napoli 3-4-1-2
Porto
- 99 D. Meireles Costa
- 20 A. Costa
- 5 J. Bednarek
- 4 J. Kiwior
- 52 M. Moreira Moutinho Fernandes
- 8 V. Froholdt
- 13 P. Rosario
- 10 G. Veiga Novas
- 11 E. Aquino Cossa
- 19 A. Valente Silva
- 17 B. Sainz Eguskiza
Napoli
- 1 A. Meret
- 31 S. Beukema
- 13 A. Rrahmani
- 16 R. Marín Zamora
- 21 M. Politano
- 99 A. Zambo Anguissa
- 8 S. McTominay
- 26 A. Vergara
- 6 B. Gilmour
- 19 R. Højlund
- 11 K. De Bruyne
Substitutes
- 42 S. Fofana
- 16 I. Hwang
- 9 S. Omorodion Aghehowa
- 22 A. Varela
- 24 J. Santos da Costa
- 12 Z. Sanusi
- 77 O. Pietuszewski
- 14 C. Morais Ramos
- 74 F. Moura
- 18 N. Pérez
- 29 S. Giménez
- 33 J. de Souza Menezes
- 32 V. Milinković Savić
- 14 N. Contini Baranovsky
- 70 N. Lang
- 20 L. Lucca
- 23 G. Santana do Nascimento
- 38 A. Chiummariello
- 40 Claudio Lieto
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