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Champions League10/13/2026, 07:00 PM

Villarreal – Napoli3 : 1

Why the model thinks so

Villarreal
1.72
Total xG
2.98
Napoli
1.26
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorVillarrealNapoli
High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match)+0.59+0.59
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean−0.15
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean+0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)−0.04
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)+0.02
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)+0.01
Ilias Akhomach on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.6 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

Key factors

  • Model prediction: Mathematical calculations give Villarreal a 47% home win chance with 1.72 expected goals
  • Home strength: Villarreal average 1.92 goals scored and only 0.76 conceded per home match
  • Offensive output: Villarreal averaged 6.4 shots on target in recent matches

Risks

  • Short turnaround: Both teams enter with only 3 days of rest since their previous match
  • Squad absences: Napoli are missing 6 players including A. Buongiorno and M. Olivera Miramontes

All probabilities

Result
Villarreal47%
Draw27%
Napoli27%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Double chance
Villarreal or draw73%
Napoli or draw53%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%

Most likely scores

1:1
12%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
3:1
Final score

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Villarreal: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
  2. Napoli: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
  3. Villarreal: dropped a lead in 5 of 8 games (14 points lost)
  4. Villarreal: 38% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (8 of 21)
  5. Napoli: 30% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (6 of 20)
  6. Villarreal: 62% of all goals in the first half (13 of 21, last 12 games)

Lineups

Villarreal 4-4-2 · Napoli 3-4-2-1

Villarreal
  • 1 L. Reis JĂșnior
  • 15 ?. Mouriño GonzĂĄlez
  • 6 P. Navarro Badenes
  • 12 R. Palma Veiga
  • 20 C. Romero Serrano
  • 24 N. Saliba
  • 14 S. Comesaña Veiga
  • 18 P. Gueye
  • 10 A. Moleiro GonzĂĄlez
  • 7 G. Moreno Balaguero
  • 9 G. Mikautadze
Napoli
  • 32 V. Milinković Savić
  • 16 R. MarĂ­n Zamora
  • 13 A. Rrahmani
  • 5 B. Badiashile Mukinayi
  • 21 M. Politano
  • 6 B. Gilmour
  • 8 S. McTominay
  • 22 G. Di Lorenzo
  • 11 K. De Bruyne
  • 23 G. Santana do Nascimento
  • 19 R. HĂžjlund
Substitutes
  • 11 Ilias Chakkour
  • 22 A. PĂ©rez GutiĂ©rrez
  • 2 L. Costa
  • 21 T. Oluwaseyi
  • 23 S. Cardona BermĂșdez
  • 8 J. Foyth
  • 28 J. GaitĂĄn Diaz
  • 27 N. El Jmili Ben Hamou
  • 13 R. GĂłmez Peris
  • 16 Carlos MaciĂ 
  • 5 A. Diatta
  • 3 A. Freeman
  • 14 N. Contini Baranovsky
  • 31 S. Beukema
  • 37 L. Spinazzola
  • 70 N. Lang
  • 20 L. Lucca
  • 1 A. Meret
  • 7 D. Neres Campos
  • 68 S. Lobotka

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