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Galatasaray – VfB Stuttgart2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Galatasaray
1.57
Total xG
3.49
VfB Stuttgart
1.92
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Galatasaray | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −1.85 | |
| Attack strength (1.71x league average) | +1.21 | |
| High-scoring league (3.4 goals/match) | +0.87 | +0.87 |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.16 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Gabriel Sara on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- xG: VfB Stuttgart generated 2.19 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data while scoring 2 goals per match
- Shots: VfB Stuttgart averaged 6 shots on target per match in the last 5 matches
- Possession: VfB Stuttgart averaged 58.2% possession per match in the last 5 matches
Risks
- Form: Galatasaray have 4 wins from their last 5 matches, VfB Stuttgart 2
- Away form: VfB Stuttgart concede 2 goals per match away from home in the Bundesliga this season
- Personnel: VfB Stuttgart without A. Stiller, who started 4 of the last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Galatasaray31%
Draw24%
VfB Stuttgart45%
Double chance
Galatasaray or draw55%
VfB Stuttgart or draw69%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.568%
Under 2.532%
Over 3.546%
Under 3.554%
Both teams score
Yes69%
No31%
xG score
1:2
From xG 1.57 : 1.92, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
10%
2:1
7%
2:2
7%
1:3
6%
2:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Galatasaray: 8 wins in 9 games with xG above 1.0 (89% win rate)
- Galatasaray with Victor Osimhen starting: 2.6 goals/game, without him: 1 (20/9 games, last 30)
- Galatasaray: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- VfB Stuttgart: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Galatasaray 4-2-3-1 · VfB Stuttgart 3-4-1-2
Galatasaray
- 1 U. Çakır
- 7 R. Sallai
- 6 D. Sánchez Mina
- 42 A. Bardakcı
- 4 I. Jakobs
- 34 L. Torreira Di Pascua
- 99 M. Lemina
- 11 Y. Akgün
- 83 A. Batrakov
- 53 B. Yılmaz
- 45 V. Osimhen
VfB Stuttgart
- 1 F. Bredlow
- 3 R. Hendriks
- 24 J. Chabot
- 7 M. Mittelstädt
- 18 J. Leweling
- 21 G. Prömel
- 16 A. Karazor
- 10 C. Führich
- 11 B. El Khannous
- 26 D. Undav
- 9 E. Demirović
Substitutes
- 3 E. Bitshiabu
- 18 C. Ugochukwu
- 90 W. Singo
- 20 İ. Gündoğan
- 17 E. Elmalı
- 19 G. Güvenc
- 8 G. Gomes Sara
- 10 L. Sané
- 21 D. Gül
- 27 R. Conceição Leão
- 74 R. Nhaga
- 24 J. Yılmaz
- 17 D. Pejcinovic
- 14 L. Jaquez
- 29 F. Jeltsch
- 8 T. de Melo Tomás
- 22 L. Assignon
- 2 A. Al Dakhil
- 28 N. Nartey
- 47 Y. Spalt
- 41 D. Seimen
- 33 M. Funk
- 43 J. de Nascimento Malanga
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