Match report →
LOSC Lille – Galatasaray2 : 4
Why the model thinks so
LOSC Lille
1.72
Total xG
2.95
Galatasaray
1.23
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | LOSC Lille | Galatasaray |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.63x league average) | −0.91 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.84 | +0.84 |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.34 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.25 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 2 season average) | −0.25 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.24 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.14 | |
| Weak away record (1 vs 2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: LOSC Lille concede 0.75 goals per game at home in the league this season, Galatasaray concede 2 per game away
- Attack: Galatasaray score 1.83 goals per game in the league this season, but also concede 1.5 goals per game
Risks
- Personnel: T. Santos Carvalho, E. Mbappé Lottin and A. Ueda are absent (5 of LOSC Lille's 10 league goals this season, 50%)
- Form: Galatasaray won 3 of their last 5 matches, while LOSC Lille won 2
All probabilities
Result
LOSC Lille47%
Draw27%
Galatasaray26%
Double chance
LOSC Lille or draw74%
Galatasaray or draw53%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.72 : 1.23, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
2:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Galatasaray with Victor Osimhen starting: 2.4 goals/game, without him: 1 (20/9 games, last 30)
- Galatasaray: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- LOSC Lille: first goal in 6 of 9 games (67%)
Lineups
LOSC Lille 4-3-3 · Galatasaray 4-2-3-1
LOSC Lille
- 1 B. Özer
- 38 M. Goffi
- 3 N. Ngoy
- 4 A. Souza Ribeiro
- 24 C. Verdonk
- 17 N. Mukau
- 6 N. Bentaleb
- 21 B. André
- 7 D. Bakwa
- 10 H. Haraldsson
- 35 S. Diaoune
Galatasaray
- 1 U. Çakır
- 7 R. Sallai
- 6 D. Sánchez Mina
- 42 A. Bardakcı
- 4 I. Jakobs
- 34 L. Torreira Di Pascua
- 8 G. Gomes Sara
- 11 Y. Akgün
- 83 A. Batrakov
- 53 B. Yılmaz
- 45 V. Osimhen
Substitutes
- 2 L. Srdanovic
- 23 N. Kouassi
- 9 O. Giroud
- 15 R. Perraud
- 14 M. Kjaergaard
- 26 I. Cossier
- 50 T. Sajous
- 19 B. Onal
- 28 G. Perrin
- 12 O. Gill
- 3 E. Bitshiabu
- 18 C. Ugochukwu
- 90 W. Singo
- 20 İ. Gündoğan
- 17 E. Elmalı
- 19 G. Güvenc
- 99 M. Lemina
- 10 L. Sané
- 21 D. Gül
- 74 R. Nhaga
- 24 J. Yılmaz
- 73 B. Luş
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →