Champions League
Villarreal - Ajax
01/20/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
0.8
1.7
0.8
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
42%
Draw
30%
Away Win
28%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
25%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
72%
Away or Draw
58%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
58%
No
42%
Key Factors
- Both teams in absolute relegation danger with only 1 and 3 points respectively
- Villarreal significantly stronger at home with 23:7 goals in 12 home games
- Ajax weak away without clean sheet in 10 away games
Risk Factors
- First direct encounter without historical reference
- Enormous pressure could lead to defensive and nervous play
Overview
Villarreal (35th place, 1 point) host Ajax (34th place, 3 points) at Estadio de la Cerámica
Champions League match on January 20, 2026, 9:00 PM
Bottom-table clash between two struggling European participants under enormous relegation pressure
Form
Villarreal: LLWWL - 2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses
Ajax: WWDWD - 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses
Villarreal on 1-match losing streak, Ajax on 1-match drawing streak
Both teams fighting against Champions League relegation
Statistics
Villarreal: Avg. 1.95 goals scored, 1.00 conceded per game
Strong home record with 23:7 goals in 12 home games
Ajax: Avg. 1.95 goals scored, 1.37 conceded
Away weakness with 20:17 goals in 10 away games
BTTS rate: Villarreal 47%, Ajax 74%
Head-to-Head
First direct encounter between Villarreal and Ajax in the Champions League
No historical data available for this matchup
Both teams meeting for the first time
Key Players
Alberto Moleiro with 2 goals and 1 assist in last 5 games
Oscar Gloukh with 3 goals and 1 assist
Mika Godts with 2 goals and 3 assists
Kasper Dolberg with 3 goals in last 5 matches
Goalkeepers
Arnau Tenas with season rating 6.31
Vitezslav Jaros with rating 6.82 in last 5 games
Both keepers under pressure in crucial Champions League phase
Influences
Estadio de la Cerámica with goal-rich character: Avg. 3.2 goals per game
60% of home games with both teams scoring
Grass surface record: Villarreal 5-0-5, Ajax 4-2-4
Champions League pressure intensifies nervousness for both teams