Match report →
AZ – Juventus1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
AZ
1.32
Total xG
2.74
Juventus
1.42
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | AZ | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.73 | |
| Attack strength (1.26x league average) | −0.48 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.36 | +0.36 |
| Attack strength (1.3x league average) | +0.26 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.17 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.06 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.04 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Attack: AZ average 1.8 goals per game at home in the league this season, Juventus average 1.2 goals per game away
- Possession: AZ averaged 57.4% possession over their last 5 matches, Juventus 56.4%
Risks
- Squad: F. Conceição, N. González and W. McKennie are absent, having scored 3 of the 13 league goals by Juventus this season (23%)
- Shots: AZ averaged 6 shots on target per game over their last 5 matches, Juventus 3.2 per game
All probabilities
Result
AZ33%
Draw29%
Juventus38%
Double chance
AZ or draw62%
Juventus or draw67%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.32 : 1.42, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Juventus: 8 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Sassuolo: 2 goals (82', 90+1')
- Juventus: 8 of 21 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Mexx Meerdink: 4 of 5 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Juventus: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
Lineups
AZ 4-3-3 · Juventus 3-4-2-1
AZ
- 28 J. De Busser
- 30 D. Kasius
- 3 W. Goes
- 4 L. Schouten
- 34 M. De Wit
- 21 D. Kwakman
- 17 V. Byskov Andreasen
- 6 P. Koopmeiners
- 14 C. Stengs
- 9 M. Meerdink
- 11 R. Daal
Juventus
- 25 G. Vicario
- 4 F. Gatti
- 26 J. Lucumí Bonilla
- 6 L. Kelly
- 15 P. Kalulu Kyatengwa
- 29 P. Sarr
- 8 T. Koopmeiners
- 20 A. Cambiaso
- 9 R. Kolo Muani
- 17 K. Alajbegović
- 27 N. Woltemade
Substitutes
- 24 A. Oufkir
- 7 W. Pinto Batista
- 2 S. Maikuma
- 22 E. Dijkstra
- 1 R. Owusu-Oduro
- 12 H. Verhulst
- 5 M. Chávez García
- 8 J. Clasie
- 10 K. Smit
- 27 W. Bouziane
- 31 R. Ichihara
- 18 Bendegúz Kovács
- 29 W. Hoedt
- 13 J. Boga
- 12 D. Soares de Paulo
- 32 J. Cabal Murillo
- 3 G. Bremer Silva Nascimento
- 23 C. Pinsoglio
- 18 J. Ekhator
- 33 N. Murara Neto
- 43 F. Pagnucco
- 41 S. Owusu
- 48 D. Elimoghale
- 51 A. Merola
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