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TSG Hoffenheim – Olympique Lyonnais3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
TSG Hoffenheim
1.55
Total xG
2.92
Olympique Lyonnais
1.37
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | TSG Hoffenheim | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.32 | +0.32 |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.29 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.26 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.17 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | +0.04 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.03 | |
| Corentin Tolisso on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Pavel Sulc not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Abner on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 46% of goal output missing (only 39% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.8 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Hoffenheim averages 2 goals per game at home in the league this season, Lyon 1 goal per game away
- Attack: Hoffenheim scored 1.8 goals per game in their last 5 games, Olympique Lyonnais 2.4 goals per game
- Head-to-head: All 3 previous meetings ended in a draw, the last match 2-2
Risks
- Form: Olympique Lyonnais won 4 of their last 5 games, TSG Hoffenheim 2 games
- Defense: Hoffenheim concedes 2.33 goals per game at home in the league this season, Lyon 0.67 goals per game away
All probabilities
Result
TSG Hoffenheim40%
Draw28%
Olympique Lyonnais32%
Double chance
TSG Hoffenheim or draw68%
Olympique Lyonnais or draw60%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.55 : 1.37, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
6%
2:2
6%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- TSG Hoffenheim: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- TSG Hoffenheim: 3 cards per game (34 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
- Olympique Lyonnais with Noah Nartey starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 1 (12/8 games, last 30)
- TSG Hoffenheim: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Lineups
TSG Hoffenheim 4-4-2 · Olympique Lyonnais 4-3-3
TSG Hoffenheim
- 1 O. Baumann
- 34 V. Coufal
- 2 R. Hranáč
- 5 O. Kabak
- 39 M. Rots
- 20 B. Conté
- 7 L. Avdullahu
- 22 A. Prass
- 14 A. Daghim
- 19 T. Lemperle
- 27 A. Kramarić
Olympique Lyonnais
- 1 D. Greif
- 37 S. Kango
- 20 F. Bacher
- 22 C. Mata Pedro Lourenço
- 21 R. Kluivert
- 99 N. Teye Nartey
- 6 T. Tessmann
- 2 M. Bidstrup
- 26 K. Boudache
- 45 R. Himbert
- 11 K. Nakamura
Substitutes
- 18 W. Burger
- 15 V. Gendrey
- 11 F. Asllani
- 36 L. Petersson
- 10 A. Hložek
- 9 M. Moerstedt
- 37 L. Philipp
- 13 B. Fernandes da Silva Junior
- 28 K. Machida
- 47 V. Lässig
- 29 N. Abraha
- 32 C. Lenz
- 24 J. Duranville
- 85 N. Kamara
- 7 E. Appiah Nuamah
- 23 T. Morton
- 18 K. Merah
- 40 R. Descamps
- 19 M. Niakhaté
- 16 A. Da Silva Santos
- 8 C. Tolisso
- 13 Z. Athekame
- 25 J. Joao
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