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Bayer 04 Leverkusen – Olympique Marseille0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
2.47
Total xG
3.49
Olympique Marseille
1.02
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Olympique Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −1.43 | |
| Attack strength (1.24x league average) | +0.60 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.36 | +0.36 |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.35 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 2 season average) | +0.13 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.13 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Leverkusen average 2.5 goals per game at home in the league this season
- Shots: Leverkusen averaged 6.2 shots on target per game in their last 5 matches, Marseille 4.4 per game
Risks
- Defence: Leverkusen conceded 2.2 goals per game in their last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Bayer 04 Leverkusen68%
Draw19%
Olympique Marseille13%
Double chance
Bayer 04 Leverkusen or draw87%
Olympique Marseille or draw32%
No draw81%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.568%
Under 2.532%
Over 3.546%
Under 3.554%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.47 : 1.02, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
2:0
9%
1:1
9%
3:1
8%
3:0
8%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Olympique Marseille: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Olympique Marseille with Himad Abdelli starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 1.2 (12/10 games, last 30)
Lineups
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4-2-3-1 · Olympique Marseille 4-1-4-1
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- 1 M. Flekken
- 4 J. Quansah
- 12 E. Tapsoba
- 2 F. Medina
- 3 M. Gutiérrez Ortega
- 24 A. García Serrano
- 8 R. Andrich
- 17 L. Vázquez Iglesias
- 30 I. Maza
- 7 J. Hofmann
- 14 P. Schick
Olympique Marseille
- 12 J. de Lange
- 74 K. Bezahaf
- 4 C. Egan Riley
- 21 N. Aguerd
- 25 U. Garcia Lopes
- 23 P. Højbjerg
- 22 T. Weah
- 19 G. Kondogbia
- 8 H. Abdelli
- 14 I. Barbosa da Paixão
- 9 A. Gouiri
Substitutes
- 28 J. Blaswich
- 10 M. Tillman
- 6 I. Fernández Carballo
- 42 M. Amare Culbreath
- 36 N. Lomb
- 5 L. Badé
- 9 A. Bastardo Moreira
- 43 B. Hawighorst
- 18 A. Meité
- 11 N. Maupay
- 7 A. Gomes
- 48 K. Hikram Abdallah
- 92 T. Vermot
- 43 T. Mmadi
- 6 T. Nadi
- 41 I. Gomis
- 42 N. Kamissoko
- 46 E. Koum Mbondo
- 44 A. Valero
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