Match report →
Celtic – Beşiktaş3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Celtic
1.80
Total xG
3.07
Beşiktaş
1.27
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Celtic | Beşiktaş |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.48 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.36 | +0.36 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 21 vs 8, 13 places gap) | −0.27 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 21, 13 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.04 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.04 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Wilfred Ndidi on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Rıdvan Yılmaz on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Celtic average 2.5 goals per game at home in the league this season, Beşiktaş concede 1.5 per game away
- Shots on target: Celtic averaged 7 shots on target per game in recent matches, Beşiktaş 4.8 per game
Risks
- Form: Celtic lost 2 of their last 5 matches, including a 1-2 home defeat in the Europa League against Celta de Vigo
All probabilities
Result
Celtic48%
Draw26%
Beşiktaş26%
Double chance
Celtic or draw74%
Beşiktaş or draw52%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.537%
Under 3.563%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.80 : 1.27, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
3:2
Final score
Lineups
Celtic 4-2-3-1 · Beşiktaş 4-2-3-1
Celtic
- 26 S. Johnstone
- 3 J. Lotomba
- 20 C. Carter-Vickers
- 5 L. Scales
- 63 K. Tierney
- 42 C. McGregor
- 22 M. Baur
- 49 J. Forrest
- 8 B. Nygren
- 17 S. Tounekti
- 9 K. Høgh
Beşiktaş
- 1 A. Nübel
- 62 M. Murillo Bermudez
- 12 E. Agbadou
- 53 E. Topçu
- 11 K. Ouattara
- 15 J. Olaitan
- 6 S. Özcan
- 18 V. Černý
- 19 L. Trossard
- 17 E. Poku
- 9 H. Oh
Substitutes
- 23 H. Hassan
- 11 C. Durán Marquez
- 47 D. Murray
- 51 C. Donovan
- 14 L. McCowan
- 31 R. Doohan
- 19 C. Osmand
- 1 V. Sinisalo
- 56 A. Ralston
- 18 O. Jensen
- 33 S. McArdle
- 21 A. Oxlade-Chamberlain
- 28 D. Vlahović
- 33 R. Yılmaz
- 35 T. Embalo Djaló
- 22 T. Bulut
- 4 O. Ndidi
- 10 O. Kökçü
- 8 K. Yılmaz
- 58 Y. Özcan
- 80 D. Alemdar
- 90 S. Kılıçsoy
- 29 I. Fakili
- 70 A. Bircan
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