Champions League
Napoli - Chelsea
01/28/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
3.4
2.1
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
23%
Draw
26%
Away Win
51%
Goals
Over 1.5
88%
Over 2.5
71%
Over 3.5
46%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
49%
Away or Draw
77%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
62%
No
38%
Key Factors
- Chelsea is currently scoring more frequently (2.4 goals on average) than their season average (2.0), while Napoli's goal production (1.0) is below their season average (1.4)
- A clear tactical imbalance: Chelsea creates high offensive threat with 7.4 shots on target per game, while Napoli only manages an average of 3.4
- Chelsea's outstanding current form with four consecutive wins contrasts sharply with Napoli's mixed record of just one win in five games
Risk Factors
- Both teams have had only three days of rest since their last match, which could lead to fatigue and squad rotation
- Napoli's strong home defense (only 0.67 goals conceded per game on average) could pose a challenge to Chelsea's potent attack
- The head-to-head data is over a decade old and offers no reliable basis for the current encounter
Overview
Napoli (25th place, 8 points) hosts Chelsea (8th place, 13 points) at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in a Champions League match
The game takes place on January 28, 2026, at 9:00 PM
Chelsea aims to solidify their position in the upper third of the table, while Napoli tries to improve from the lower section
Form
Chelsea arrives in significantly superior form
Their form from the last five matches is LWWWW, which corresponds to 4 wins and 1 loss, including a current four-game winning streak
Napoli's form is inconsistent at DDWDL, showing only 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss
The form curve clearly favors the visitors (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Offensively, Chelsea has been stronger this season, averaging 1.70 goals per game compared to Napoli's 1.41
Defensively, Napoli is slightly more stable, conceding an average of 0.91 goals per game, compared to Chelsea's 1.09
Napoli's defense is particularly strong at home (0.67 goals conceded on average), while Chelsea maintains its offensive power away (1.69 goals per game)
Matches involving Chelsea have more frequently seen both teams score (14 out of 23 games) than those involving Napoli (9 out of 22)
Head-to-Head
The historical record between the two teams is balanced
In the 2 previous encounters, each team won once, with no draws
Napoli scored 4 goals, while Chelsea scored 5
The last direct duel took place in March 2012 and therefore has very little relevance for the current match
Key Players
Scott McTominay is a key offensive player with 4 goals this season
Rasmus Højlund has contributed 2 goals
For Chelsea, Enzo Fernández is in strong form with 2 goals and 3 assists in his last five games
Pedro Neto has scored 2 goals in his last five matches
Moisés Caicedo has also impressed recently with a goal and strong ratings
Goalkeepers
Napoli's goalkeeper Vanja Milinković-Savić has played in 7 matches this season
Chelsea's goalkeeper is Robert Sánchez
Both teams have kept 9 clean sheets this season
Influences
The Stadio Diego Armando Maradona is a moderately high-scoring venue, with an average of 2.0 goals per game in the last five matches
Both teams scored in 60% of these games
On a grass surface, Chelsea has a better record with 5 wins in 10 games compared to Napoli's 3 wins in 10 games