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Anderlecht – Salzburg2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Anderlecht
2.11
Total xG
3.35
Salzburg
1.24
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Anderlecht | Salzburg |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.36 | +0.36 |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.25 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.24 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.22 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.22 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.21 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| Marten Winkler not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 77% available) | ||
| Strong home record (2.2 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home form: Anderlecht averages 2 goals scored and 0.4 conceded per home game in the league this season
- Defense: Anderlecht allowed 0.94 xG per game in 10 games with xG data in the league
Risks
- Form: Salzburg is undefeated in 11 league games this season with 8 wins and 3 draws
- Attack: Salzburg scored 2.6 goals per game in their last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
Anderlecht56%
Draw23%
Salzburg21%
Double chance
Anderlecht or draw79%
Salzburg or draw44%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.565%
Under 2.535%
Over 3.543%
Under 3.557%
Both teams score
Yes64%
No36%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.11 : 1.24, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
10%
2:0
8%
3:1
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Salzburg with Bartosz Mazurek starting: 2.5 goals/game, without him: 1.2 (13/12 games, last 30)
- Salzburg: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
Lineups
Anderlecht 4-2-3-1 · Salzburg 4-2-3-1
Anderlecht
- 26 C. Coosemans
- 79 A. Maamar
- 4 G. Biancone
- 27 L. Pétrot
- 6 L. Augustinsson
- 29 M. Stroeykens
- 24 E. Llansana
- 18 L. Ambros
- 14 D. Sikan
- 49 J. Onia-Seke
- 9 M. Cvetković
Salzburg
- 52 C. Zawieschitzky
- 39 L. Morgalla
- 21 T. Drexler
- 47 V. Zabransky
- 13 F. Krätzig
- 32 A. Bari
- 15 B. Mazurek
- 20 E. Baidoo
- 30 G. Diakité
- 11 Y. Vertessen
- 9 H. Tabakovic
Substitutes
- 12 A. Omobamidele
- 11 O. Antman
- 91 A. Bertaccini
- 54 K. Sardella
- 83 T. Degreef
- 55 M. Kana
- 8 A. Romeo
- 32 J. Heekeren
- 5 O. Reabciuk
- 21 T. Bentayeb
- 50 K. Barry
- 10 M. Winkler
- 35 J. Lindstrøm
- 22 S. Lainer
- 5 S. Diabaté
- 19 K. Konaté
- 91 A. Chase
- 7 U. Tohumcu
- 1 C. Früchtl
- 23 D. Redzic
- 41 N. Šarčević
- 33 A. Camara
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