Match report →
Crystal Palace – TSG Hoffenheim1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Crystal Palace
2.00
Total xG
3.23
TSG Hoffenheim
1.23
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Crystal Palace | TSG Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −2.46 | |
| Attack strength (1.41x league average) | +2.05 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.45 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.36 | +0.36 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.20 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.20 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.17 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.12 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home: Crystal Palace averages 1.5 goals scored and 2.5 goals conceded per match at home in the league this season
- Away: TSG Hoffenheim averages 1.25 goals scored and 2.25 goals conceded per match away in the league this season
Risks
- Form: TSG Hoffenheim won 3 of their last 5 matches, while Crystal Palace suffered 4 defeats in their last 5 matches
- Shots: TSG Hoffenheim averaged 5.4 shots on target per match in their last 5 games, compared to 2.6 for Crystal Palace
All probabilities
Result
Crystal Palace54%
Draw24%
TSG Hoffenheim22%
Double chance
Crystal Palace or draw78%
TSG Hoffenheim or draw46%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.563%
Under 2.537%
Over 3.540%
Under 3.560%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.00 : 1.23, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
2:0
8%
3:1
6%
1:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- TSG Hoffenheim: 10 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Crystal Palace: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- TSG Hoffenheim: 2.9 cards per game (32 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)
- Crystal Palace: 35% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (6 of 17)
- TSG Hoffenheim: 7 of 20 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 11 games)
Lineups
Crystal Palace 3-4-3 · TSG Hoffenheim 4-4-2
Crystal Palace
- 1 D. Henderson
- 6 J. Canvot
- 26 C. Richards
- 21 H. Ahanor
- 25 A. Khalaili
- 20 A. Wharton
- 23 Q. Timber
- 3 T. Mitchell
- 18 D. Kamada
- 14 J. Mateta
- 10 Y. Jesús Pino Santos
TSG Hoffenheim
- 1 O. Baumann
- 29 N. Abraha
- 5 O. Kabak
- 28 K. Machida
- 39 M. Rots
- 27 A. Kramarić
- 18 W. Burger
- 7 L. Avdullahu
- 22 A. Prass
- 11 F. Asllani
- 19 T. Lemperle
Substitutes
- 30 Ó. Mingueza García
- 22 J. Strand Larsen
- 11 D. McNeil
- 44 W. Benítez
- 9 E. Nketiah
- 5 A. Disasi
- 24 D. Osorio Osorio
- 43 S. Williams
- 81 L. Benetton
- 14 A. Daghim
- 36 L. Petersson
- 37 L. Philipp
- 13 B. Fernandes da Silva Junior
- 47 V. Lässig
- 32 C. Lenz
- 46 J. Fields
- 4 S. Dulic
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