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Beşiktaş – Crystal Palace2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Beşiktaş
1.26
Total xG
2.87
Crystal Palace
1.61
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Beşiktaş | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.3x league average) | +0.77 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.53 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.48 | |
| Attack strength (1.23x league average) | −0.39 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.38 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.32 | +0.32 |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.23 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Junior Olaitan on the bench (0 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Orkun Kökçü not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Vaclav Cerny not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Amir Murillo on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 47% of goal output missing (only 45% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Attack: Crystal Palace generated 1.74 xG per match in 5 games with xG data, with the model expecting 1.61 to 1.26 goals
- Goals: Beşiktaş scored 2.2 goals per match in the last 5 games and conceded 1.4 goals per match
Risks
- Form: Beşiktaş recorded 4 wins in the last 5 games, Crystal Palace 2 wins in 5 games
- Away: Crystal Palace conceded 2.25 goals per match away in the league this season across 4 games
- Shots: Beşiktaş registered 6.2 shots on target per match in the last 5 games, Crystal Palace 4.4 per match
All probabilities
Result
Beşiktaş28%
Draw28%
Crystal Palace44%
Double chance
Beşiktaş or draw56%
Crystal Palace or draw72%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.26 : 1.61, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
0:2
7%
2:1
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Beşiktaş: 8 wins in 9 games with xG above 1.0 (89% win rate)
- Beşiktaş: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)
- Crystal Palace: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Crystal Palace: 32% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (6 of 19)
Lineups
Beşiktaş 4-1-4-1 · Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1
Beşiktaş
- 1 A. Nübel
- 22 T. Bulut
- 35 T. Embalo Djaló
- 50 ?. Akdağ
- 11 K. Ouattara
- 4 O. Ndidi
- 29 I. Fakili
- 21 F. Miretti
- 8 K. Yılmaz
- 19 L. Trossard
- 9 H. Oh
Crystal Palace
- 44 W. Benítez
- 26 C. Richards
- 5 A. Disasi
- 6 J. Canvot
- 25 A. Khalaili
- 20 A. Wharton
- 18 D. Kamada
- 3 T. Mitchell
- 11 D. McNeil
- 10 Y. Jesús Pino Santos
- 14 J. Mateta
Substitutes
- 17 E. Poku
- 6 S. Özcan
- 62 M. Murillo Bermudez
- 12 E. Agbadou
- 28 D. Vlahović
- 33 R. Yılmaz
- 18 V. Černý
- 53 E. Topçu
- 58 Y. Özcan
- 80 D. Alemdar
- 90 S. Kılıçsoy
- 15 J. Olaitan
- 30 Ó. Mingueza García
- 33 B. Chilwell
- 22 J. Strand Larsen
- 1 D. Henderson
- 7 I. Sarr
- 19 W. Hughes
- 9 E. Nketiah
- 31 R. Matthews
- 21 H. Ahanor
- 23 Q. Timber
- 24 D. Osorio Osorio
- 37 G. King
- 54 D. Benamar
- 81 L. Benetton
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