Match report →
Real Sociedad – Olympique Lyonnais1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Real Sociedad
1.36
Total xG
2.83
Olympique Lyonnais
1.47
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Real Sociedad | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.62x league average) | −1.01 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.56 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.36 | +0.36 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.22 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.22 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.11 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.09 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | ||
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.8 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Tactics: Real Sociedad averaged 4.4 shots on target per game in their last 5 matches, Olympique Lyonnais 4.0 per game
- xG: Real Sociedad generated 1.46 xG per game in 5 matches with xG data, but scored 2.4 goals per game
- Head-to-head: Across 4 meetings, Real Sociedad won 2 matches and Olympique Lyonnais won 2 matches
Risks
- Away: Olympique Lyonnais scored 0.75 goals per game in 4 away matches in the league this season
- Defense: Real Sociedad conceded 1.82 goals per game in the league this season, Olympique Lyonnais 0.78 per game
All probabilities
Result
Real Sociedad34%
Draw28%
Olympique Lyonnais38%
Double chance
Real Sociedad or draw62%
Olympique Lyonnais or draw66%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.36 : 1.47, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Real Sociedad: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Real Sociedad with Gonçalo Guedes starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 1 (14/7 games, last 30)
- Real Sociedad: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Real Sociedad 4-4-2 · Olympique Lyonnais 4-3-3
Real Sociedad
- 13 U. Marrero Larrañaga
- 2 J. Aramburu
- 5 I. Zubeldía Elorza
- 19 M. Sarr
- 17 S. Gómez
- 7 A. Barrenetxea Muguruza
- 4 J. Gorrotxategi Etxaniz
- 21 Y. Herrera Ravelo
- 11 G. Ganchinho Guedes
- 10 M. Oyarzabal Ugarte
- 9 O. Óskarsson
Olympique Lyonnais
- 1 D. Greif
- 13 Z. Athekame
- 20 F. Bacher
- 21 R. Kluivert
- 16 A. Da Silva Santos
- 2 M. Bidstrup
- 6 T. Tessmann
- 8 C. Tolisso
- 26 K. Boudache
- 18 K. Merah
- 11 K. Nakamura
Substitutes
- 22 H. García
- 16 J. Pacheco Dozagarat
- 6 J. Martín Vicente
- 1 A. Remiro Gargallo
- 18 C. Soler Barragán
- 24 L. Sučić
- 8 B. Turrientes Imaz
- 15 P. Marín Tejada
- 3 A. Muñoz Capellán
- 14 T. Kubo
- 28 A. Lebarbier Null
- 29 A. Marchal Garcia
- 12 J. Nguono Ochieng
- 24 J. Duranville
- 85 N. Kamara
- 22 C. Mata Pedro Lourenço
- 3 N. Alejandro Tagliafico
- 32 A. Gomes Rodriguez
- 40 R. Descamps
- 99 N. Teye Nartey
- 46 T. Gonçalves
- 44 A. Hamdani
- 25 J. Joao
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